Transport Corporation of India Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Transport Corporation of India Limited (NSE:TCI) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹10b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 15%, coming in at just ₹10.19 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Transport Corporation of India after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Transport Corporation of India

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Transport Corporation of India are now predicting revenues of ₹46.0b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 21% to ₹51.48. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹46.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹52.51 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 9.4% to ₹1,043despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Transport Corporation of India's earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Transport Corporation of India at ₹1,341 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹875. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Transport Corporation of India's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Transport Corporation of India is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Transport Corporation of India analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Transport Corporation of India that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.