Mahindra Logistics Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Mahindra Logistics Limited (NSE:MAHLOG) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to ₹444. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of ₹1.50 per share on revenues of ₹15b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mahindra Logistics

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Mahindra Logistics are now predicting revenues of ₹61.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Mahindra Logistics is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of ₹2.88 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹62.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹6.17 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 5.6% to ₹455, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mahindra Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹632 and the most bearish at ₹300 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mahindra Logistics'historical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So although Mahindra Logistics is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mahindra Logistics. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Mahindra Logistics' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mahindra Logistics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Mahindra Logistics analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mahindra Logistics has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.