Blue Dart Express Limited Just Beat EPS By 59%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Blue Dart Express Limited (NSE:BLUEDART) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 12% higher than the analysts had forecast, at ₹11b, while EPS were ₹40.17 beating analyst models by 59%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Blue Dart Express

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Blue Dart Express' six analysts is for revenues of ₹35.6b in 2022, which would reflect a decent 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Blue Dart Express is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of ₹69.74 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹34.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹64.00 in 2022. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Blue Dart Express 8.6% to ₹3,638on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Blue Dart Express, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹5,063 and the most bearish at ₹2,101 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Blue Dart Express' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.4%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 14% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Blue Dart Express is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Blue Dart Express following these results. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Blue Dart Express. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Blue Dart Express going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Blue Dart Express that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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