Stock Analysis

The 20% return this week takes Centum Electronics' (NSE:CENTUM) shareholders three-year gains to 314%

NSEI:CENTUM
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Generally speaking, investors are inspired to be stock pickers by the potential to find the big winners. But when you hold the right stock for the right time period, the rewards can be truly huge. Take, for example, the Centum Electronics Limited (NSE:CENTUM) share price, which skyrocketed 305% over three years. On top of that, the share price is up 71% in about a quarter.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Centum Electronics investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

See our latest analysis for Centum Electronics

SWOT Analysis for Centum Electronics

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine CENTUM's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.

Centum Electronics wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last 3 years Centum Electronics saw its revenue shrink by 3.4% per year. This is in stark contrast to the strong share price growth of 59%, compound, per year. There can be no doubt this kind of decoupling of revenue growth and share price growth is unusual to see in loss making companies. At the risk of upsetting holders, this does suggest that hope for a better future is playing a significant role in the share price action.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NSEI:CENTUM Earnings and Revenue Growth May 30th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Centum Electronics, it has a TSR of 314% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Centum Electronics has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 112% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Centum Electronics that you should be aware of before investing here.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Centum Electronics is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.