Here's Why Supreme Engineering (NSE:SUPREMEENG) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Supreme Engineering Limited (NSE:SUPREMEENG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Supreme Engineering

What Is Supreme Engineering's Debt?

As you can see below, Supreme Engineering had ₹897.6m of debt, at September 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has ₹40.3m in cash leading to net debt of about ₹857.2m.

How Healthy Is Supreme Engineering's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Supreme Engineering had liabilities of ₹1.26b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹215.1m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₹40.3m in cash and ₹588.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹848.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₹611.1m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 0.54 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 12.8 hit our confidence in Supreme Engineering like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Supreme Engineering saw its EBIT tank 70% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Supreme Engineering's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Supreme Engineering recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

To be frank both Supreme Engineering's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Supreme Engineering has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Supreme Engineering has 5 warning signs (and 3 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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