Is There An Opportunity With Prism Johnson Limited's (NSE:PRSMJOHNSN) 50% Undervaluation?

Key Insights

• Prism Johnson's estimated fair value is ₹439 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of ₹221 suggests Prism Johnson is potentially 50% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 168% higher than Prism Johnson's analyst price target of ₹164

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Prism Johnson Limited (NSE:PRSMJOHNSN) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Prism Johnson

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	-₹284.0m	₹5.50b	₹8.75b	₹12.5b	₹16.6b	₹20.7b	₹24.7b	₹28.5b	₹32.2b	₹35.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x2	Est @ 59.07%	Est @ 43.36%	Est @ 32.36%	Est @ 24.66%	Est @ 19.27%	Est @ 15.50%	Est @ 12.86%	Est @ 11.01%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	-₹249	₹4.2k	₹5.9k	₹7.5k	₹8.7k	₹9.5k	₹10.0k	₹10.1k	₹10.0k	₹9.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹75b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹36b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (14%– 6.7%) = ₹533b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹533b÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= ₹146b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹221b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹221, the company appears quite good value at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Prism Johnson as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.051. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Prism Johnson

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Prism Johnson, we've compiled three further elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Prism Johnson (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does PRSMJOHNSN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.