Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Pennar Industries Limited (NSE:PENIND) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Pennar Industries
What Is Pennar Industries's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Pennar Industries had ₹5.88b in debt in March 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it also had ₹1.32b in cash, and so its net debt is ₹4.56b.
How Healthy Is Pennar Industries' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Pennar Industries had liabilities of ₹12.3b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹1.78b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹1.32b as well as receivables valued at ₹4.25b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹8.48b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹4.68b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Pennar Industries would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Pennar Industries's debt to EBITDA ratio (2.7) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 1.5, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Pennar Industries actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 138%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Pennar Industries will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Pennar Industries's free cash flow amounted to 48% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Pennar Industries's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Pennar Industries stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Pennar Industries is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those make us uncomfortable...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:PENIND
Pennar Industries
Operates as an engineering company in India and internationally.
Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.