Revenue Miss: NOCIL Limited Fell 6.1% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

NOCIL Limited (NSE:NOCIL) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues came in 6.1% below expectations, at ₹3.7b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ₹7.95 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for NOCIL

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NOCIL from three analysts is for revenues of ₹16.2b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 25% to ₹9.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹15.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.88 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on NOCIL's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of ₹274, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic NOCIL analyst has a price target of ₹345 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹194. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting NOCIL's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that NOCIL is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around NOCIL's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NOCIL going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for NOCIL (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.