Results: NOCIL Limited Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that NOCIL Limited (NSE:NOCIL) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to ₹265 in the past week. Revenues ₹3.4b disappointed slightly, at7.5% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of ₹1.79 coming in 12% above what was anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for NOCIL

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NOCIL from three analysts is for revenues of ₹17.1b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 45% to ₹10.45. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹17.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹9.85 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on NOCIL's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at ₹257, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic NOCIL analyst has a price target of ₹392 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹208. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NOCIL's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this to the 313 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like NOCIL is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards NOCIL following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹257, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NOCIL going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for NOCIL that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.