Earnings Update: NOCIL Limited (NSE:NOCIL) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Investors in NOCIL Limited (NSE:NOCIL) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.5% to close at ₹184 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues of ₹14b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at ₹6.15, missing estimates by 4.7%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NOCIL from seven analysts is for revenues of ₹14.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.1% to ₹6.35. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹16.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.90 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for NOCIL

The consensus price target fell 5.6% to ₹225, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on NOCIL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹319 and the most bearish at ₹156 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NOCIL's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that NOCIL is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of NOCIL's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NOCIL going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for NOCIL you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.