NMDC Limited Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that NMDC Limited (NSE:NMDC) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to ₹211 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹54b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 37%, coming in at ₹6.72 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for NMDC

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering NMDC are now predicting revenues of ₹241.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 20% to ₹24.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹240.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹25.15 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at ₹247, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NMDC at ₹325 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹170. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting NMDC's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that NMDC is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NMDC. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NMDC. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple NMDC analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with NMDC , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.