Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that MMP Industries Limited (NSE:MMP) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for MMP Industries
What Is MMP Industries's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2021 MMP Industries had debt of ₹475.2m, up from ₹143.0m in one year. However, it also had ₹34.3m in cash, and so its net debt is ₹440.8m.
How Healthy Is MMP Industries' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that MMP Industries had liabilities of ₹767.4m due within a year, and liabilities of ₹96.5m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₹34.3m in cash and ₹477.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹352.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Of course, MMP Industries has a market capitalization of ₹3.80b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
MMP Industries has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 11.9 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On top of that, MMP Industries grew its EBIT by 58% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since MMP Industries will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, MMP Industries burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
The good news is that MMP Industries's demonstrated ability to grow its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But we must concede we find its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow has the opposite effect. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that MMP Industries can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for MMP Industries (2 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:MMP
MMP Industries
Manufactures, sells, distributes, and trades aluminium products in India.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.