Results: Jubilant Ingrevia Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Jubilant Ingrevia Limited (NSE:JUBLINGREA) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was positive overall - although revenues of ₹11b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Jubilant Ingrevia surprised by delivering a statutory profit of ₹4.39 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Jubilant Ingrevia

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Jubilant Ingrevia's three analysts is for revenues of ₹49.6b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 71% to ₹22.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹53.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹21.57 in 2026. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

There's been a 5.3% lift in the price target to ₹861, with the analysts signalling that the higher earnings forecasts are more relevant to the business than the weaker revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jubilant Ingrevia at ₹1,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹680. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Jubilant Ingrevia shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Jubilant Ingrevia's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 327 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Jubilant Ingrevia is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Jubilant Ingrevia following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Jubilant Ingrevia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Jubilant Ingrevia's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.