Stock Analysis

Despite lower earnings than five years ago, Gulshan Polyols (NSE:GULPOLY) investors are up 572% since then

NSEI:GULPOLY
Source: Shutterstock

Gulshan Polyols Limited (NSE:GULPOLY) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 11% in the last week. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 548% in that time. So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for Gulshan Polyols

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Gulshan Polyols actually saw its EPS drop 1.3% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

We doubt the modest 0.1% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Gulshan Polyols' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 18% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NSEI:GULPOLY Earnings and Revenue Growth October 8th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Gulshan Polyols' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Gulshan Polyols the TSR over the last 5 years was 572%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Gulshan Polyols had a tough year, with a total loss of 4.1% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 42%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 46% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Gulshan Polyols has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.