Ganga Forging (NSE:GANGAFORGE) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Ganga Forging Limited (NSE:GANGAFORGE) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Ganga Forging

How Much Debt Does Ganga Forging Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Ganga Forging had ₹143.0m of debt, an increase on ₹116.7m, over one year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

How Strong Is Ganga Forging's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ganga Forging had liabilities of ₹156.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹57.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹1.80m and ₹57.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹154.8m.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Ganga Forging has a market capitalization of ₹487.4m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Ganga Forging shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.8), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.5 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Ganga Forging saw its EBIT tank 28% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Ganga Forging will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Ganga Forging saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Ganga Forging's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to handle its total liabilities isn't such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Ganga Forging has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 5 warning signs with Ganga Forging (at least 3 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.