Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Barak Valley Cements Limited (NSE:BVCL) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Barak Valley Cements
What Is Barak Valley Cements's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Barak Valley Cements had ₹1.07b of debt, at March 2021, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had ₹26.4m in cash, and so its net debt is ₹1.05b.
How Healthy Is Barak Valley Cements' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Barak Valley Cements had liabilities of ₹832.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹905.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹26.4m and ₹157.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹1.55b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the ₹603.9m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Barak Valley Cements would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 1.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 hit our confidence in Barak Valley Cements like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. On a lighter note, we note that Barak Valley Cements grew its EBIT by 28% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Barak Valley Cements will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Barak Valley Cements created free cash flow amounting to 7.4% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
To be frank both Barak Valley Cements's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Barak Valley Cements's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Barak Valley Cements you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About NSEI:BVCL
Barak Valley Cements
Manufactures and sells various grades of cement in India.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.