Analysts Are Updating Their Petronet LNG Limited (NSE:PETRONET) Estimates After Its Third-Quarter Results

There's been a notable change in appetite for Petronet LNG Limited (NSE:PETRONET) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to ₹291. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of ₹122b and statutory earnings per share of ₹6.01. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Petronet LNG

After the latest results, the 28 analysts covering Petronet LNG are now predicting revenues of ₹566.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 7.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 12% to ₹27.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹631.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹27.49 in 2026. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the latest results, with a real cut to revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of ₹330, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Petronet LNG's market value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Petronet LNG, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹425 and the most bearish at ₹235 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Petronet LNG's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Petronet LNG is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Petronet LNG. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Petronet LNG going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Petronet LNG you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.