Earnings Miss: Indian Oil Corporation Limited Missed EPS By 51% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

As you might know, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (NSE:IOC) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with ₹1.9t revenue coming in 2.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹2.56 missed the mark badly, arriving some 51% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Indian Oil

Following last week's earnings report, Indian Oil's 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be ₹7.67t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 27% to ₹16.24 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹7.85t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹16.66 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹171 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Indian Oil analyst has a price target of ₹238 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹110. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Indian Oil is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Indian Oil. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹171, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Indian Oil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Indian Oil (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com