Bajaj Finserv Ltd. Just Beat Revenue By 17%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (NSE:BAJAJFINSV) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to ₹1,586 in the past week. Bajaj Finserv beat revenue forecasts by a solid 17% to hit ₹315b. Statutory earnings per share came in at ₹50.70, in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Bajaj Finserv

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Bajaj Finserv's eight analysts is for revenues of ₹1.28t in 2025. This reflects a notable 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.4% to ₹55.15. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹1.29t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹64.20 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at ₹1,770, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Bajaj Finserv, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹2,040 and the most bearish at ₹1,330 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bajaj Finserv's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this to the 173 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Bajaj Finserv's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bajaj Finserv. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹1,770, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bajaj Finserv going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Bajaj Finserv that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com