Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that TIL Limited (NSE:TIL) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is TIL's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 TIL had ₹3.17b of debt, an increase on ₹2.18b, over one year. However, it does have ₹87.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹3.08b.
A Look At TIL's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that TIL had liabilities of ₹4.28b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹320.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹87.8m and ₹2.43b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹2.09b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of ₹1.83b, we think shareholders really should watch TIL's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since TIL will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Over 12 months, TIL made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to ₹2.9b, which is a fall of 37%. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
Caveat Emptor
Not only did TIL's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Its EBIT loss was a whopping ₹286m. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. It would need to improve its operations quickly for us to be interested in it. Not least because it burned through ₹576m in negative free cash flow over the last year. That means it's on the risky side of things. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for TIL that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About NSEI:TIL
TIL
Together with its subsidiary, TIL Overseas PTE Limited, provides materials handling solutions in India and internationally.
Low and slightly overvalued.