Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Cummins India Limited (NSE:CUMMINSIND)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Cummins India's (NSE:CUMMINSIND) recent performance, when its stock has declined 13% over the past three months. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Specifically, we decided to study Cummins India's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Cummins India

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cummins India is:

28% = ₹19b ÷ ₹70b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.28.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Cummins India's Earnings Growth And 28% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that Cummins India has a significantly high ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 14% the company's ROE is quite impressive. As a result, Cummins India's exceptional 24% net income growth seen over the past five years, doesn't come as a surprise.

We then performed a comparison between Cummins India's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 28% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cummins India is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Cummins India Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Cummins India's significant three-year median payout ratio of 56% (where it is retaining only 44% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Moreover, Cummins India is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 52% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 25%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that Cummins India's performance has been quite good. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.