Cummins India Limited Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 7.0%

The quarterly results for Cummins India Limited (NSE:CUMMINSIND) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of ₹32b coming in 7.0% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of ₹72.15, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Cummins India's 20 analysts is for revenues of ₹119.1b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 4.8% to ₹79.46 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹119.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹83.76 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Cummins India

The consensus price target held steady at ₹4,006, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Cummins India analyst has a price target of ₹5,072 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹2,699. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Cummins India's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Cummins India.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Cummins India. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Cummins India analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Cummins India you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.