Optimistic Investors Push Africa Israel Residences Ltd (TLV:AFRE) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Africa Israel Residences Ltd (TLV:AFRE) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking further back, the 25% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Following the firm bounce in price, Africa Israel Residences' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.9x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Israel, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

For example, consider that Africa Israel Residences' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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How Is Africa Israel Residences' Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Africa Israel Residences' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 17%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 53% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 29% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Africa Israel Residences is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Africa Israel Residences' P/E?

Africa Israel Residences shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Africa Israel Residences revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Africa Israel Residences (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Africa Israel Residences, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com