Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Hilan Ltd. (TLV:HLAN)

When close to half the companies in Israel have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider Hilan Ltd. (TLV:HLAN) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 28.5x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

The earnings growth achieved at Hilan over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Hilan

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hilan's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Hilan's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 18% gain to the company's bottom line. EPS has also lifted 30% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hilan's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Hilan revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hilan that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Hilan, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.