New Risk • May 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Indonesian stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.3x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Recent Insider Transactions • May 07
Director recently bought Rp9.8b worth of stock On the 30th of April, Jason Greive bought around 289k shares on-market at roughly Rp34,000 per share. This transaction amounted to 65% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought Rp11b more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Announcement • May 06
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2026 PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2026. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2025 earnings released: US$0.002 loss per share (vs US$0.002 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: US$0.002 loss per share (in line with FY 2024). Revenue: US$1.89b (down 15% from FY 2024). Net loss: US$62.1m (loss widened 11% from FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 30% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 33% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 26
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 60% to Rp3,640. The fair value is estimated to be Rp4,637, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 30% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 20
Commissioner recently bought Rp480m worth of stock On the 18th of February, Andrew Phillip Starkey bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly Rp3,200 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought Rp939m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 18
Commissioner recently bought Rp459m worth of stock On the 9th of February, Andrew Phillip Starkey bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly Rp3,060 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.6% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 13
Commissioner recently bought Rp459m worth of stock On the 9th of February, Andrew Phillip Starkey bought around 150k shares on-market at roughly Rp3,060 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.6% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 27
Now 25% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 30% to Rp3,210. The fair value is estimated to be Rp4,303, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 30% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Dec 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: US$0.001 loss per share (improved from US$0.002 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$432.5m (down 25% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: US$19.0m (loss narrowed 65% from 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 67%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 39% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 45 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Oct 14
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Commissioner Muhamad Munir was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • May 05
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2025 PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2025. New Risk • Oct 02
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.5x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0 (vs US$0.002 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0 (improved from US$0.002 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$552.8m (up 81% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$2.73m (up US$55.1m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.5% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Jun 04
First quarter 2024 earnings released: US$0.001 loss per share (vs US$0 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: US$0.001 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$541.1m (up 153% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: US$15.2m (down US$18.3m from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 09
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2024 PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 04
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.6% to Rp2,680. The fair value is estimated to be Rp2,195, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 63% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings released: US$0.001 loss per share (vs US$0.002 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: US$0.001 loss per share (down from US$0.002 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: US$1.71b (up 96% from FY 2022). Net loss: US$20.7m (down 135% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 45% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Feb 02
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Indonesian stocks, typically moving 8.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Sep 30
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.002 loss per share (vs US$0.001 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: US$0.002 loss per share (down from US$0.001 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$305.8m (up 40% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: US$52.3m (down 293% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 49% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Sep 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.1x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 6.6% per year over the past 5 years. Reported Earnings • Jun 02
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0 (vs US$0.003 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0 (down from US$0.003 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$214.2m (up 74% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$3.11m (down 96% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 57% in 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 29% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 31% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 25% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$1.80b to US$1.78b. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.01 per share to US$0.0075 per share. Net income forecast to grow 103% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target down from Rp5,092 to Rp4,955. Share price was steady at Rp2,970 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 17
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$1.51b to US$1.82b. EPS estimate reaffirmed at US$0.0046. Net income forecast to grow 109% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp0. Share price fell 4.8% to Rp3,190 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.003 (vs US$0.002 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$0.003 (up from US$0.002 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$869.9m (up 128% from FY 2021). Net income: US$58.4m (up 62% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.7% (down from 9.5% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 27% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 47% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia expected to see average net income growth of 9.1% next year. Consensus price target up from Rp5,252 to Rp5,371. Share price rose 4.9% to Rp4,500 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 05
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia expected to see average net income growth of 8.6% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp5,414. Share price rose 3.4% to Rp4,200 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 26
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$809.7m to US$824.8m. EPS estimate fell from US$0.01 to US$0.01 per share. Net income forecast to grow 69% next year vs 9.0% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp5,491. Share price fell 6.7% to Rp4,010 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Dec 18
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: US$0.001 loss per share (vs US$0.001 profit in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: US$0.001 loss per share (down from US$0.001 profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$284.6m (up 126% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: US$27.6m (down 282% from profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 49% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 24% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 61% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from US$0.01 to US$0.01 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$809.7m. Net income forecast to shrink 8.5% next year vs 4.4% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp5,397. Share price was steady at Rp4,360 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from US$0.01 to US$0.01. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$812.1m. Net income forecast to shrink 4.7% next year vs 9.0% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp5,468. Share price rose 7.8% to Rp4,550 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Commissioner Muhamad Munir was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Sep 15
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.001 (vs US$0 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.001 (up from US$0 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$218.3m (up 146% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$27.1m (up 150% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (in line with 2Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 41% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 52% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 14
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$570.5m to US$658.8m. Forecast losses expected to reduce from US$0 to US$0.01 per share. Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia expected to see average net income decline 14% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp5,314. Share price rose 8.5% to Rp4,360 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 22
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to Rp4,030, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 52x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 319% over the past three years. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Commissioner Budi Bowoleksono was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$0.002 (vs US$0.002 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$381.0m (up 18% from FY 2020). Net income: US$36.1m (flat on FY 2020). Profit margin: 9.5% (down from 11% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 100%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 61% growth forecast for the mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 77% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Feb 01
Andalan International Pte Ltd and PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (IDX:MDKA) agreed to acquire an unknown minority stake in Pani IUP Project from Lion Manager Pty Ltd for $52 million. Andalan International Pte Ltd and PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (IDX:MDKA) agreed to acquire an unknown minority stake in Pani IUP Project from Lion Manager Pty Ltd for $52 million on January 31, 2022. $52 million consideration comprises: $26 million in cash payable by Merdeka, with $21 million payable upfront and the balance one year later and $26 million payable by Andalan with $21 million being paid up front (to be satisfied by $20 million in unencumbered and tradable Merdeka shares and $1 million in cash), with the balance one year later in cash (subject to any adjustment or cash top-up). The deal is expected to close on February 28, 2022. Taylor Collison acted as corporate advisor and Thomson Geer acted as legal advisor to Lion Group. Reported Earnings • Dec 07
Third quarter 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2021 results: EPS: US$0.001 (vs US$0.001 in 3Q 2020). Revenue: US$125.7m (up 29% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$15.2m (down 20% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 12% (down from 19% in 3Q 2020). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 39%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 39%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 45%, compared to a 23% growth forecast for the industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 44% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 85% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 24
Price target increased to Rp3,410 Up from Rp3,075, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 5.8% below last closing price of Rp3,620. Stock is up 99% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.0022 for next year compared to US$0.0017 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 30
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.001 (vs US$0.001 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$88.9m (down 6.5% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$10.8m (down 53% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 12% (down from 25% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 74% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from US$345.9m to US$341.6m. EPS estimate rose from US$0.003 to US$0.0049. Net income forecast to grow 103% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target of Rp3,033 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 7.7% to Rp2,500 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 01
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to US$2,620, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 44x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 502% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Apr 25
Price target increased to Rp3,054 Up from Rp2,829, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 35% above last closing price of Rp2,270. Stock is up 79% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 23
New 90-day high: Rp2,830 The company is up 56% from its price of Rp1,815 on 25 November 2020. The Indonesian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 62% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp51.86 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 01
New 90-day high: Rp2,800 The company is up 51% from its price of Rp1,860 on 04 November 2020. The Indonesian market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 50% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp493 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 20
Price target raised to Rp2,365 Up from Rp2,131, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. The new target price is 6.5% below the current share price of Rp2,530. As of last close, the stock is up 114% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Jan 05
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS US$0.001 The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$97.7m (down 26% from 3Q 2019). Net income: US$18.9m (down 21% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 19% (up from 18% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 79% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 18
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to US$2,240, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 52.1x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 45x. This compares to an average P/E of 20x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 440%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: Rp2,240 The company is up 40% from its price of Rp1,600 on 18 September 2020. The Indonesian market is up 21% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 56% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp804 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 04
New 90-day high: Rp1,995 The company is up 15% from its price of Rp1,730 on 04 September 2020. The Indonesian market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 24% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp718 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 10
New 90-day high: Rp1,965 The company is up 9.0% from its price of Rp1,810 on 12 August 2020. The Indonesian market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp733 per share.