Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • 3h
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to Rp2,970, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 81% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp5,658 per share. Announcement • May 05
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026 PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026. New Risk • Apr 30
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 31% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (31% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 29
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from Rp128.1b to Rp150.7b. EPS estimate increased from Rp453 to Rp507 per share. Net income forecast to grow 69% next year vs 65% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp4,705 to Rp4,830. Share price fell 5.4% to Rp3,880 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 10
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 24% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from Rp115.6b to Rp143.8b. EPS estimate increased from Rp358 to Rp518 per share. Net income forecast to grow 73% next year vs 85% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp4,545 to Rp4,705. Share price was steady at Rp3,710 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: Rp300 (vs Rp152 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: Rp300 (up from Rp152 in FY 2024). Revenue: Rp85t (up 22% from FY 2024). Net income: Rp7.21t (up 98% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 8.5% (up from 5.3% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 32% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to Rp3,820, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 145% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp6,543 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 05
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 31% to Rp3,810. The fair value is estimated to be Rp4,915, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 32% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 12% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 12% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to Rp4,760, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 146% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp4,707 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 14
Price target increased by 8.7% to Rp3,810 Up from Rp3,505, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 6.8% below last closing price of Rp4,090. Stock is up 167% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Rp315 for next year compared to Rp152 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to Rp3,850, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 120% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp3,622 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 31
Commercial Director & Director recently sold Rp11m worth of stock On the 24th of December, Handi Sutanto sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly Rp3,230 per share. This transaction amounted to 100% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought Rp588m more than they sold in the last 12 months. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 28
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.3% to Rp2,910. The fair value is estimated to be Rp3,686, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 32% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.3% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 1.0% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from Rp99.2b to Rp97.5b. EPS estimate also fell from Rp322 per share to Rp289 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 8.8% next year vs 52% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target reaffirmed at Rp3,551. Share price was steady at Rp3,110 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: Rp53.19 (up from Rp27.08 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: Rp13t (down 35% from 3Q 2024). Net income: Rp1.28t (up 96% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.8% (up from 3.3% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 60%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 57%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 31% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year. Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target increased by 7.0% to Rp3,583 Up from Rp3,347, the current price target is an average from 16 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of Rp3,130. Stock is up 97% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Rp322 for next year compared to Rp152 last year. Board Change • Oct 24
No independent directors There are 11 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 11 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Director of Operation & Production and Director . Hartono is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2023. Independent Commissioner Pius Lustrilanang was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Announcement • Jun 19
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk Appoints Ratih Dewihandajani L. as Director, Effective 12 June 2025 PT Aneka Tambang Tbk appointed Ratih Dewihandajani L. as director, date of appointment is 12 June 2025. Announcement • Jun 13
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk Announces a Dividend Distribution PT Aneka Tambang Tbk announced a dividend distribution of IDR 3.65 trillion or 100% from net profit attributable to the owners of the parent of the company. Announcement • May 07
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2025 PT Aneka Tambang Tbk, Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2025. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: Rp27.08 (down from Rp39.90 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: Rp20t (up 117% from 3Q 2023). Net income: Rp650.7b (down 32% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.3% (down from 10% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 20%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: Rp54.60 (up from Rp9.43 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: Rp15t (up 45% from 2Q 2023). Net income: Rp1.31t (up 479% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.0% (up from 2.3% in 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 24%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 25
Price target decreased by 7.6% to Rp1,807 Down from Rp1,957, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of Rp1,310. Stock is down 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Rp101 for next year compared to Rp128 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 10
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to Rp1,240, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total loss to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp2,470 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from Rp48.6b to Rp46.4b. EPS estimate also fell from Rp120 per share to Rp104 per share. Net income forecast to grow 66% next year vs 63% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,027. Share price fell 7.6% to Rp1,515 over the past week. New Risk • May 01
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.3% Last year net profit margin: 8.4% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (149% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.3% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Rp9.92 (vs Rp69.21 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: Rp9.92 (down from Rp69.21 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: Rp8.62t (down 26% from 1Q 2023). Net income: Rp238.4b (down 86% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.8% (down from 14% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from Rp42.7b to Rp45.1b. EPS estimate fell from Rp133 to Rp111 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 23% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,070. Share price rose 3.8% to Rp1,660 over the past week. New Risk • Apr 02
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 32% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: Rp128 (down from Rp159 in FY 2022). Revenue: Rp41t (down 11% from FY 2022). Net income: Rp3.08t (down 20% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 8.3% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Jan 22
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 22% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from Rp43.9b to Rp40.9b. EPS estimate also fell from Rp189 per share to Rp147 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 1.7% next year vs 6.5% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,566. Share price was steady at Rp1,700 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: Rp39.90 (down from Rp45.81 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: Rp9.24t (down 38% from 3Q 2022). Net income: Rp958.8b (down 13% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 10% (up from 7.4% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 34%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 59% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from Rp160 to Rp182. Revenue forecast unchanged at Rp43.9b. Net income forecast to shrink 2.2% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target up from Rp2,547 to Rp2,604. Share price was steady at Rp1,820 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Rp188 to Rp160 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Rp44.2b. Net income forecast to shrink 3.0% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target down from Rp2,655 to Rp2,550. Share price was steady at Rp1,945 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: Rp9.43 (vs Rp2.52 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: Rp9.43 (up from Rp2.52 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: Rp10t (up 12% from 2Q 2022). Net income: Rp226.6b (up 275% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.3% (up from 0.7% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 04
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: Rp69.21 (vs Rp60.98 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: Rp69.21 (up from Rp60.98 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: Rp12t (up 19% from 1Q 2022). Net income: Rp1.66t (up 14% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 26% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 62% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 02
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from Rp40.5b to Rp45.8b. EPS estimate increased from Rp158 to Rp184 per share. Net income forecast to grow 16% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,737. Share price rose 10% to Rp2,090 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: Rp159 (up from Rp77.47 in FY 2021). Revenue: Rp46t (up 20% from FY 2021). Net income: Rp3.82t (up 105% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 8.3% (up from 4.8% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 10%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.2%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia are expected to grow by 22%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 71% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 64% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jan 19
Hong Kong CBL Limited agreed to acquire an unknown minority stake in PT Sumberdaya Arindo from PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. Hong Kong CBL Limited agreed to acquire an unknown minority stake in PT Sumberdaya Arindo from PT Aneka Tambang Tbk on January 16, 2023. Reported Earnings • Dec 18
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: Rp45.81 (up from Rp22.89 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: Rp15t (up 62% from 3Q 2021). Net income: Rp1.10t (up 100% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.4% (up from 6.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 56%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 24% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent President Commissioner F.X. Sutijastoto was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 12
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from Rp41.6b to Rp40.1b. EPS estimate also fell from Rp172 per share to Rp149 per share. Net income forecast to grow 61% next year vs 14% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target down from Rp3,090 to Rp2,884. Share price was steady at Rp1,980 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 06
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: Rp2.52 (vs Rp22.06 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: Rp2.52 (down from Rp22.06 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: Rp9.03t (up 12% from 2Q 2021). Net income: Rp60.5b (down 89% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 6.6% in 2Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 22
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to Rp1,780, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 106% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp991 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 01
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from Rp43.1b to Rp42.0b. EPS estimate rose from Rp158 to Rp182. Net income forecast to grow 65% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp3,403. Share price was steady at Rp2,510 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from Rp42.1b to Rp43.2b. EPS estimate increased from Rp145 to Rp166 per share. Net income forecast to grow 56% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp3,338 to Rp3,432. Share price was steady at Rp2,470 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 24
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: Rp60.98 (up from Rp26.23 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: Rp9.75t (up 5.8% from 1Q 2021). Net income: Rp1.47t (up 133% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 15% (up from 6.8% in 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 24%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 51% growth forecast for the industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 53% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors There are 4 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 4 new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. No independent directors (5 non-independent directors). Independent Commissioner Anang Kusuwardono is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2017. Independent President Commissioner F.X. Sutijastoto was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Lack of experienced directors. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 11
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from Rp41.2b to Rp41.6b. EPS estimate increased from Rp132 to Rp148 per share. Net income forecast to grow 98% next year vs 91% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp3,263. Share price was steady at Rp2,630 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 17
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: Rp77.47 (up from Rp47.83 in FY 2020). Revenue: Rp38t (up 41% from FY 2020). Net income: Rp1.86t (up 62% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 4.8% (up from 4.2% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 11%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 24%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 2.6% compared to a 51% growth forecast for the mining industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 35% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 09
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 24% share price gain to Rp2,840, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 203% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp2,075 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 22
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to Rp2,170, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 114% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp1,785 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS Rp94.91 (vs Rp5.99 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: Rp35t (up 35% from FY 2020). Net income: Rp2.28t (up Rp2.14t from FY 2020). Profit margin: 6.5% (up from 0.5% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 52% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Sep 29
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS Rp22.06 (vs Rp15.26 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: Rp8.06t (up 100% from 2Q 2020). Net income: Rp530.0b (up 45% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.6% (down from 9.1% in 2Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 41% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to Rp2,590, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 193% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp2,571 per share. Reported Earnings • May 04
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS Rp26.23 (vs Rp11.73 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: Rp9.21t (up 77% from 1Q 2020). Net income: Rp630.4b (up Rp912.2b from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.8% (up from net loss in 1Q 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 47% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Executive Departure • Apr 09
Director of Commerce & Director has left the company On the 7th of April, Aprilandi Setia's tenure as Director of Commerce & Director ended after 2.0 years in the role. As of December 2020, Aprilandi personally held only 31.00k shares (Rp60m worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from Rp29.1b to Rp28.2b. EPS estimate rose from Rp82.62 to Rp97.33. Net income forecast to grow 104% next year vs 42% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,774. Share price fell 7.0% to Rp2,250 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 16
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS Rp47.83 (vs Rp8.07 in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: Rp27t (down 16% from FY 2019). Net income: Rp1.15t (up 493% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 0.6% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 43% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Feb 07
Price target raised to Rp2,516 Up from Rp2,272, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. The new target price is 5.4% below the current share price of Rp2,660. As of last close, the stock is up 264% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 22
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate increased from Rp36.53 to Rp40.80. Revenue estimate for the same period was approximately flat at Rp25.1b. Net income is expected to grow by 267% next year compared to 34% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. The consensus price target increased from Rp1,159 to Rp2,022. Share price stayed mostly flat at Rp3,090 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 12
New 90-day high: Rp2,770 The company is up 196% from its price of Rp935 on 15 October 2020. The Indonesian market is up 23% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 70% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp138 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 30
Price target raised to Rp1,170 Up from Rp1,080, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. The new target price is 40% below the current share price of Rp1,935. As of last close, the stock is up 130% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 28
New 90-day high: Rp2,000 The company is up 184% from its price of Rp705 on 30 September 2020. The Indonesian market is up 24% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 71% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp138 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 08
New 90-day high: Rp1,280 The company is up 61% from its price of Rp795 on 09 September 2020. The Indonesian market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 26% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp118 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 04
Analysts increase EPS estimates to Rp41.93 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate increased from Rp23.6b to Rp24.9b. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from Rp12.65 to Rp41.93 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 115% next year compared to 29% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Indonesia. The consensus price target increased from Rp903 to Rp1,025. Share price is up 4.7% to Rp1,105 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 03
New 90-day high: Rp1,110 The company is up 48% from its price of Rp750 on 05 August 2020. The Indonesian market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp159 per share. Price Target Changed • Nov 02
Price target raised to Rp948 Up from Rp858, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. The new target price is 14% below the current share price of Rp1,100. As of last close, the stock is up 31% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of Rp406.2b, down 75% from the prior year. Total revenue was Rp26t over the last 12 months, down 12% from the prior year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 19
New 90-day high: Rp1,055 The company is up 54% from its price of Rp685 on 21 July 2020. The Indonesian market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 23% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp241 per share.