PT Gudang Garam Tbk

IDX:GGRM Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp25.8t

Gudang Garam Valuation

Is GGRM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GGRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GGRM (IDR13425) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR37337.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GGRM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GGRM?

Key metric: As GGRM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GGRM. This is calculated by dividing GGRM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GGRM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsRp1.86t
Market CapRp25.83t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GGRM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GGRM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.8x
HMSP Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna
10.6x14.6%Rp75.6t
WIIM Wismilak Inti Makmur
4x13.5%Rp1.6t
JPFA Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
9.8x10.8%Rp20.5t
STTP Siantar Top
14.9xn/aRp18.6t
GGRM Gudang Garam
13.9x25.6%Rp25.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GGRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GGRM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Tobacco Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GGRM 13.9xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GGRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the Global Tobacco industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GGRM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GGRM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio16.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GGRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GGRM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp13,425.00
Rp15,677.27
+16.8%
36.7%Rp30,000.00Rp8,000.00n/a11
Nov ’25Rp13,700.00
Rp15,704.55
+14.6%
36.5%Rp30,000.00Rp8,000.00n/a11
Oct ’25Rp16,100.00
Rp17,795.83
+10.5%
37.9%Rp33,000.00Rp11,000.00n/a12
Sep ’25Rp16,375.00
Rp19,204.17
+17.3%
39.3%Rp33,000.00Rp11,000.00n/a12
Aug ’25Rp15,400.00
Rp20,704.17
+34.4%
34.1%Rp33,000.00Rp13,000.00n/a12
Jul ’25Rp17,500.00
Rp22,240.83
+27.1%
31.7%Rp33,000.00Rp13,000.00n/a12
Jun ’25Rp18,700.00
Rp23,068.46
+23.4%
31.9%Rp33,000.00Rp13,000.00n/a13
May ’25Rp18,225.00
Rp24,849.23
+36.3%
23.3%Rp33,000.00Rp15,800.00n/a13
Apr ’25Rp19,675.00
Rp25,660.77
+30.4%
21.2%Rp33,000.00Rp15,800.00n/a13
Mar ’25Rp20,225.00
Rp25,660.77
+26.9%
21.2%Rp33,000.00Rp15,800.00n/a13
Feb ’25Rp19,575.00
Rp26,324.29
+34.5%
20.3%Rp33,000.00Rp15,800.00n/a14
Jan ’25Rp20,325.00
Rp28,311.67
+39.3%
18.4%Rp36,000.00Rp19,640.00n/a12
Dec ’24Rp21,025.00
Rp28,311.67
+34.7%
18.4%Rp36,000.00Rp19,640.00n/a12
Nov ’24Rp22,175.00
Rp30,259.09
+36.5%
15.9%Rp36,000.00Rp20,500.00Rp13,700.0011
Oct ’24Rp24,600.00
Rp30,486.36
+23.9%
16.1%Rp36,000.00Rp20,500.00Rp16,100.0011
Sep ’24Rp24,250.00
Rp30,713.64
+26.7%
16.1%Rp36,000.00Rp20,500.00Rp16,375.0011
Aug ’24Rp27,500.00
Rp30,531.82
+11.0%
15.9%Rp36,000.00Rp20,500.00Rp15,400.0011
Jul ’24Rp27,625.00
Rp30,575.00
+10.7%
19.4%Rp37,800.00Rp18,250.00Rp17,500.0010
Jun ’24Rp27,000.00
Rp28,162.50
+4.3%
22.0%Rp37,800.00Rp18,250.00Rp18,700.0012
May ’24Rp28,450.00
Rp26,640.91
-6.4%
22.9%Rp37,800.00Rp18,250.00Rp18,225.0011
Apr ’24Rp26,000.00
Rp26,280.00
+1.1%
25.1%Rp37,800.00Rp18,250.00Rp19,675.0010
Mar ’24Rp23,900.00
Rp25,330.00
+6.0%
26.4%Rp37,800.00Rp18,250.00Rp20,225.0010
Feb ’24Rp24,000.00
Rp24,330.00
+1.4%
30.3%Rp37,800.00Rp15,000.00Rp19,575.0010
Jan ’24Rp18,000.00
Rp22,979.55
+27.7%
30.5%Rp37,800.00Rp12,100.00Rp20,325.0011
Dec ’23Rp18,900.00
Rp22,979.55
+21.6%
30.5%Rp37,800.00Rp12,100.00Rp21,025.0011
Nov ’23Rp23,075.00
Rp26,172.92
+13.4%
42.7%Rp56,000.00Rp12,100.00Rp22,175.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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