PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

IDX:AALI Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp12.0t

Astra Agro Lestari Valuation

Is AALI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AALI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AALI (IDR6250) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR73695.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AALI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AALI?

Key metric: As AALI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AALI. This is calculated by dividing AALI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AALI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.4x
EarningsRp1.06t
Market CapRp12.03t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AALI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AALI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9x
STAA Sumber Tani Agung Resources
9xn/aRp9.3t
DSNG Dharma Satya Nusantara
9.7x11.8%Rp11.6t
LSIP Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia
6.8x8.1%Rp7.5t
TLDN Teladan Prima Agro
10.4xn/aRp6.9t
AALI Astra Agro Lestari
11.4x0.1%Rp12.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AALI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AALI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Food Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UNSP Bakrie Sumatera Plantations
0.2xn/aUS$19.22m
PSDN Prasidha Aneka Niaga
0.9xn/aUS$7.26m
No more companies available in this PE range
AALI 11.4xIndustry Avg. 16.5xNo. of Companies12PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AALI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the ID Food industry average (16.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AALI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AALI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.4x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AALI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AALI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp6,250.00
Rp8,035.00
+28.6%
36.2%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a6
Dec ’25Rp6,200.00
Rp8,035.00
+29.6%
36.2%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a6
Nov ’25Rp6,725.00
Rp7,935.00
+18.0%
37.1%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a6
Oct ’25Rp6,725.00
Rp7,901.67
+17.5%
38.7%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a6
Sep ’25Rp6,050.00
Rp7,901.67
+30.6%
38.7%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a6
Aug ’25Rp6,075.00
Rp7,651.43
+25.9%
37.9%Rp14,300.00Rp5,460.00n/a7
Jul ’25Rp5,400.00
Rp7,733.44
+43.2%
33.5%Rp14,300.00Rp5,715.00n/a9
Jun ’25Rp5,875.00
Rp7,733.44
+31.6%
33.5%Rp14,300.00Rp5,715.00n/a9
May ’25Rp6,500.00
Rp8,161.22
+25.6%
32.7%Rp14,300.00Rp5,715.00n/a9
Apr ’25Rp6,925.00
Rp7,606.38
+9.8%
22.4%Rp10,350.00Rp5,715.00n/a8
Mar ’25Rp6,800.00
Rp7,606.38
+11.9%
22.4%Rp10,350.00Rp5,715.00n/a8
Feb ’25Rp6,875.00
Rp8,197.63
+19.2%
17.7%Rp10,350.00Rp6,000.00n/a8
Jan ’25Rp7,025.00
Rp8,432.63
+20.0%
14.4%Rp10,350.00Rp6,760.00n/a8
Dec ’24Rp7,475.00
Rp8,432.63
+12.8%
14.4%Rp10,350.00Rp6,760.00Rp6,200.008
Nov ’24Rp7,000.00
Rp8,528.71
+21.8%
14.9%Rp10,350.00Rp6,700.00Rp6,725.007
Oct ’24Rp7,500.00
Rp8,573.57
+14.3%
14.1%Rp10,350.00Rp6,700.00Rp6,725.007
Sep ’24Rp7,650.00
Rp8,601.88
+12.4%
13.7%Rp10,350.00Rp6,700.00Rp6,050.008
Aug ’24Rp7,550.00
Rp8,601.88
+13.9%
13.7%Rp10,350.00Rp6,700.00Rp6,075.008
Jul ’24Rp7,475.00
Rp9,084.44
+21.5%
24.2%Rp14,300.00Rp6,200.00Rp5,400.009
Jun ’24Rp7,050.00
Rp9,084.44
+28.9%
24.2%Rp14,300.00Rp6,200.00Rp5,875.009
May ’24Rp7,725.00
Rp9,198.89
+19.1%
22.5%Rp14,300.00Rp7,230.00Rp6,500.009
Apr ’24Rp8,100.00
Rp9,917.50
+22.4%
20.2%Rp14,300.00Rp7,240.00Rp6,925.0010
Mar ’24Rp8,375.00
Rp10,717.50
+28.0%
23.5%Rp14,350.00Rp7,240.00Rp6,800.0010
Feb ’24Rp8,200.00
Rp10,707.50
+30.6%
23.5%Rp14,350.00Rp7,240.00Rp6,875.0010
Jan ’24Rp8,025.00
Rp10,707.50
+33.4%
23.5%Rp14,350.00Rp7,240.00Rp7,025.0010
Dec ’23Rp8,350.00
Rp12,443.18
+49.0%
41.9%Rp27,000.00Rp7,240.00Rp7,475.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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