Major Estimate Revision • May 08
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$2.75b to US$3.04b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.016 to US$0.017 per share. Net income forecast to grow 39% next year vs 40% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,697. Share price was steady at Rp2,490 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2026 results: EPS: US$0.004 (up from US$0.003 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$470.9m (up 23% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$128.1m (up 67% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 27% (up from 20% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 34%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 65 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 14
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$2.74b to US$3.26b. EPS estimate unchanged from US$0.017 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia expected to see average net income growth of 28% next year. Consensus price target up from Rp2,504 to Rp2,716. Share price rose 3.3% to Rp2,480 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 08
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$0.015 (in line with FY 2024). Revenue: US$1.87b (down 9.9% from FY 2024). Net income: US$447.7m (down 3.0% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 24% (up from 22% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 27%. Revenue is forecast to grow 27% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 75 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 09
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to Rp2,100, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 68% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 18
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to Rp1,900. The fair value is estimated to be Rp1,530, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 71% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 74% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 100% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 02
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.4% to Rp1,840. The fair value is estimated to be Rp1,519, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 71% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 74% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 99% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.004 (down from US$0.013 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$490.5m (down 67% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$126.6m (down 69% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 26% (down from 27% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 39%. Revenue is forecast to grow 46% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 66 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Oct 24
No independent directors There are 3 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 new directors. 3 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. No independent directors (3 non-independent directors). President Commissioner Edwin Soeryadjaya is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2008. Independent Commissioner Budi Bowoleksono was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Lack of experienced directors. Announcement • Apr 10
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (IDX:ADRO) announces an Equity Buyback for IDR 4,000,000 million worth of its shares. PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (IDX:ADRO) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to IDR 4,000,000 million worth of its shares. The repurchase program is subject to annual general meeting's approval. The repurchase program is valid for 12 months. Announcement • Apr 09
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025 PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 07
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 23% to Rp3,920. The fair value is estimated to be Rp4,949, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 12%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 7.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 34% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$5.71b to US$5.81b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.039 to US$0.045 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 24% next year vs 14% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp3,589. Share price rose 10% to Rp4,010 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.013 (vs US$0.011 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.013 (up from US$0.011 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.48b (down 1.5% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$404.2m (up 17% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 27% (up from 23% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 07
Banks Reportedly Tapped for Kestrel Sale EMR Capital Pty. Ltd. is understood to have hired Bank of America and Macquarie Capital for a sale of its USD 3 billion plus Kestrel coal mine that could come on the market as soon as this year. The asset is likely to come up for sale after the conclusion of the USD 4 billion Anglo American sale process for Queensland coal mines, capitalising on its strong sale momentum and offering underbidders the opportunity to secure another top-quality asset in the sector. Kestrel is the underground coking or metallurgical coal mine, producing about 7.1 million tonnes of coal annually which is used to make steel worldwide. It is located in Queensland's Bowen Basin, 51km northeast of Emerald, and was purchased from Adaro Energy by the Owen Hegarty-chaired EMR Capital in 2018 for USD 2.25 billion. Although EMR Capital owns 52%, PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (IDX:ADRO) owns the remainder and has pre-emptive rights to buy out EMR's stake should it opt not to divest its interest. The sale comes after BHP also offloaded its Daunia and Blackwater coal mines to Whitehaven Coal last year in a deal worth USD 3.2 billion, while South32 last year sold its Illawarra Coal mine to Golden Energy Resources and M Resources for USD 1.65 billion. Announcement • Sep 13
Adaro Energy Indonesia Intends to Sell Up to All of Its Stake in Adaro Andalan Indonesia PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (IDX:ADRO) intended to sell up to all of the shares under its ownership in PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 24% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$5.51b to US$5.78b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.038 to US$0.047 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 5.0% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp3,220. Share price rose 2.6% to Rp3,610 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 28
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.013 (in line with 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.53b (down 6.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$404.4m (down 2.7% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 26% (up from 25% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.2%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 39% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from US$0.034 to US$0.043. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$5.51b. Net income forecast to shrink 31% next year vs 5.1% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target of Rp3,052 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.1% to Rp2,870 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 25% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from US$0.033 to US$0.041. Revenue forecast steady at US$5.42b. Net income forecast to shrink 32% next year vs 7.2% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp3,053. Share price rose 5.2% to Rp2,850 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.012 (vs US$0.015 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.012 (down from US$0.015 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.44b (down 22% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$374.3m (down 18% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 26% (up from 25% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is expected to fall by 9.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 2.7% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 31% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 10
PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2024 PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2024, at 02:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.053 (vs US$0.08 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$0.053 (down from US$0.08 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$6.52b (down 20% from FY 2022). Net income: US$1.64b (down 34% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 25% (down from 31% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years compared to a 5.5% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 27% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.011 (down from US$0.022 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.50b (down 37% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$345.1m (down 50% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 23% (down from 29% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is expected to fall by 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 8.8% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 73% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 29% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 24
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.013 (down from US$0.026 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.64b (down 29% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$415.8m (down 49% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 25% (down from 35% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is expected to fall by 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 11% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 85% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 04
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.015 (up from US$0.013 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.84b (up 50% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$458.0m (up 14% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 25% (down from 33% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 28%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 21%. Revenue is expected to fall by 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 6.6% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 91% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 45% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.08 (vs US$0.029 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$0.08 (up from US$0.029 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$8.10b (up 103% from FY 2021). Net income: US$2.49b (up 167% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 31% (up from 23% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 21% p.a. on average during the next 2 years compared to a 8.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 91% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 38% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 05
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to Rp3,100, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 4x in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 173% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp3,169 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 26
Upcoming dividend of US$0.016 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 02 January 2023. Payment date: 13 January 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 12% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 8.5%. Within top quartile of Indonesian dividend payers (5.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). Board Change • Nov 16
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Commissioner Budi Bowoleksono was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.022 (up from US$0.008 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$2.37b (up 136% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$690.7m (up 175% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 29% (up from 25% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 66%. Revenue is expected to fall by 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 8.9% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 81% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 39% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$6.66b to US$7.25b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.05 to US$0.07 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia . Consensus price target up from Rp3,810 to Rp4,147. Share price rose 14% to Rp4,030 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.026 (up from US$0.003 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$2.32b (up 166% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$812.6m (up US$714.4m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 35% (up from 11% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 30%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 51%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 42% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to Rp3,520, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 253% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp3,102 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 10
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 32% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$5.87b to US$7.77b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.05 to US$0.07 per share. Net income forecast to grow 43% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp3,134 to Rp3,377. Share price fell 7.5% to Rp3,090 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$5.64b to US$5.87b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.04 to US$0.05 per share. Net income forecast to grow 5.4% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp3,057 to Rp3,143. Share price was steady at Rp3,340 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.013 (up from US$0.002 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$1.22b (up 77% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$400.1m (up 458% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 33% (up from 10% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 45%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 22%, compared to a 39% growth forecast for the industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 36% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Commissioner Budi Bowoleksono was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 09
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 24% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$4.05b to US$5.04b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.02 to US$0.04 per share. Net income forecast to grow 34% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target up from Rp2,206 to Rp2,489. Share price rose 20% to Rp3,120 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 04
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$0.029 (up from US$0.005 in FY 2020). Revenue: US$3.99b (up 57% from FY 2020). Net income: US$933.5m (up US$786.6m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 23% (up from 5.8% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 43%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 28% growth forecast for the oil industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 01
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to Rp2,580, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 138% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp3,152 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from US$3.90b to US$3.75b. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.02 per share to US$0.02 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,043. Share price rose 4.3% to Rp2,400 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from US$3.90b to US$3.75b. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.02 per share to US$0.02 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,032. Share price was steady at Rp2,300 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from US$3.85b to US$3.69b. EPS estimate rose from US$0.016 to US$0.02. Net income forecast to grow 34% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp2,049. Share price rose 12% to Rp1,910 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Dec 01
Third quarter 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2021 results: EPS: US$0.008 (up from US$0.001 loss in 3Q 2020). Revenue: US$1.01b (up 70% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$250.9m (up US$296.7m from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 25% (up from net loss in 3Q 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 17%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 76%. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 76%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 25%, compared to a 30% growth forecast for the industry in Indonesia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 28
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 29% share price gain to Rp1,740, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Total returns to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Rp2,541 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.003 (vs US$0.002 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$870.8m (up 42% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$98.2m (up 73% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.3% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 06
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from US$0.011 to US$0.009 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$3.02b. Net income forecast to grow 215% next year vs 59% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp1,701. Share price fell 4.8% to Rp1,195 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.002 (vs US$0.003 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a poor first quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$692.0m (down 7.8% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$71.7m (down 27% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 10% (down from 13% in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 04
Consensus EPS estimates increase to US$0.011 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from US$2.98b to US$3.05b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.0096 to US$0.011 per share. Net income forecast to grow 155% next year vs 51% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Rp1,726. Share price fell 3.3% to Rp1,180 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 05
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$0.005 (vs US$0.013 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$2.53b (down 27% from FY 2019). Net income: US$146.9m (down 64% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.8% (down from 12% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 05
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 41%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 19%, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 14
New 90-day high: Rp1,570 The company is up 37% from its price of Rp1,145 on 16 September 2020. The Indonesian market is up 16% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 25% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp1,688 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 24
New 90-day high: Rp1,300 The company is up 17% from its price of Rp1,110 on 26 August 2020. The Indonesian market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is Rp1,508 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 04
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.1%, compared to a 301,861% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Indonesia. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: US$0.001 loss per share The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$591.6m (down 33% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: US$45.7m (down 142% from profit in 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year.