PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk

IDX:ADRO Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp115.3t

Adaro Energy Indonesia Valuation

Is ADRO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADRO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADRO (IDR3750) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR4975.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADRO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADRO?

Key metric: As ADRO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ADRO. This is calculated by dividing ADRO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ADRO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio4.5x
EarningsUS$1.61b
Market CapUS$7.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADRO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADRO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
UNTR United Tractors
4.7x-4.6%Rp98.1t
GEMS Golden Energy Mines
7.6xn/aRp60.4t
DSSA Dian Swastatika Sentosa
48.5xn/aRp229.3t
PTBA Bukitm
5.9x-5.8%Rp31.9t
ADRO Adaro Energy Indonesia
4.5x-18.4%Rp115.3t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADRO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADRO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Oil and Gas Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNKO Exploitasi Energi Indonesia
1.7xn/aUS$3.95m
No more companies available in this PE range
ADRO 4.5xIndustry Avg. 8.0xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADRO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the ID Oil and Gas industry average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADRO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADRO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.5x
Fair PE Ratio5.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADRO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADRO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp3,750.00
Rp3,672.56
-2.1%
17.6%Rp4,733.17Rp2,057.90n/a17
Nov ’25Rp3,790.00
Rp3,665.02
-3.3%
17.4%Rp4,692.51Rp2,040.22n/a17
Oct ’25Rp3,920.00
Rp3,422.41
-12.7%
16.7%Rp4,113.73Rp1,875.38n/a17
Sep ’25Rp3,560.00
Rp3,273.37
-8.1%
19.1%Rp4,141.94Rp1,916.42n/a15
Aug ’25Rp3,250.00
Rp3,208.46
-1.3%
17.4%Rp4,345.62Rp2,010.66n/a15
Jul ’25Rp2,800.00
Rp3,128.00
+11.7%
18.0%Rp4,423.80Rp2,024.18n/a16
Jun ’25Rp2,770.00
Rp3,060.73
+10.5%
17.2%Rp4,361.20Rp2,092.09n/a16
May ’25Rp2,710.00
Rp3,046.45
+12.4%
20.2%Rp4,387.22Rp2,104.57n/a17
Apr ’25Rp2,640.00
Rp2,904.20
+10.0%
17.8%Rp4,187.00Rp2,054.00n/a16
Mar ’25Rp2,490.00
Rp2,937.04
+18.0%
17.8%Rp4,163.68Rp2,042.56n/a15
Feb ’25Rp2,420.00
Rp2,948.06
+21.8%
17.9%Rp4,177.73Rp2,049.45n/a15
Jan ’25Rp2,380.00
Rp2,965.57
+24.6%
17.1%Rp4,103.79Rp2,291.93n/a16
Dec ’24Rp2,560.00
Rp3,121.21
+21.9%
19.8%Rp4,456.67Rp2,282.31n/a15
Nov ’24Rp2,410.00
Rp3,279.72
+36.1%
19.3%Rp4,581.81Rp2,409.81Rp3,790.0015
Oct ’24Rp2,850.00
Rp3,219.70
+13.0%
20.4%Rp4,537.40Rp2,337.91Rp3,920.0015
Sep ’24Rp2,680.00
Rp3,245.78
+21.1%
20.5%Rp4,497.87Rp2,317.54Rp3,560.0016
Aug ’24Rp2,390.00
Rp3,472.48
+45.3%
22.7%Rp5,489.85Rp2,292.46Rp3,250.0017
Jul ’24Rp2,230.00
Rp3,715.12
+66.6%
18.1%Rp5,546.30Rp2,398.40Rp2,800.0019
Jun ’24Rp2,040.00
Rp3,747.75
+83.7%
17.1%Rp5,547.78Rp2,533.99Rp2,770.0020
May ’24Rp3,130.00
Rp3,829.17
+22.3%
17.1%Rp5,358.60Rp2,515.57Rp2,710.0020
Apr ’24Rp2,900.00
Rp3,924.29
+35.3%
17.1%Rp5,418.00Rp2,543.45Rp2,640.0020
Mar ’24Rp2,990.00
Rp4,142.73
+38.6%
15.3%Rp5,305.15Rp2,751.38Rp2,490.0019
Feb ’24Rp2,950.00
Rp4,116.13
+39.5%
15.1%Rp5,200.10Rp2,696.90Rp2,420.0020
Jan ’24Rp3,850.00
Rp4,382.12
+13.8%
13.4%Rp5,455.57Rp3,298.35Rp2,380.0021
Dec ’23Rp3,900.00
Rp4,269.77
+9.5%
16.2%Rp5,367.97Rp2,568.63Rp2,560.0020
Nov ’23Rp3,750.00
Rp4,418.78
+17.8%
13.6%Rp5,166.15Rp2,614.39Rp2,410.0019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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