Astra International Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ASII when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ASII (IDR5100) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (IDR6414.52)

Is ASII undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ASII when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ASII (IDR5100) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR6414.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ASII is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ASII?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ASII. This is calculated by dividing ASII's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ASII's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	Rp206.47t

ASII key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.1x
PEG Ratio	7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ASII's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ASII vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	52.6x
BNBR Bakrie & Brothers	33.7x	n/a	Rp8.0t
LIFCO B Lifco	38.2x	14.3%	kr121.5b
QHOLDING Q Holding PSC	108.3x	n/a	د.إ49.9b
LATO B Investment AB Latour	30.3x	n/a	kr177.1b
ASII Astra International	6.3x	0.9%	Rp206.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ASII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (52.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ASII's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Industrials Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	14.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	14.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ASII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the Asian Industrials industry average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ASII's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ASII PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.3x
Fair PE Ratio	10.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ASII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ASII forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Rp5,100.00	Rp6,157.17 +20.7%	15.2%	Rp7,600.00	Rp4,400.00	n/a	23
Apr ’25	Rp5,200.00	Rp6,203.64 +19.3%	15.8%	Rp7,630.00	Rp4,400.00	n/a	22
Mar ’25	Rp5,225.00	Rp6,303.64 +20.6%	14.8%	Rp7,630.00	Rp4,600.00	n/a	22
Feb ’25	Rp5,125.00	Rp6,618.70 +29.1%	16.2%	Rp8,500.00	Rp4,650.00	n/a	23
Jan ’25	Rp5,650.00	Rp7,176.58 +27.0%	10.3%	Rp8,500.00	Rp5,500.00	n/a	19
Dec ’24	Rp5,750.00	Rp7,206.18 +25.3%	10.5%	Rp8,500.00	Rp5,500.00	n/a	17
Nov ’24	Rp5,800.00	Rp7,385.29 +27.3%	10.2%	Rp8,500.00	Rp5,500.00	n/a	17
Oct ’24	Rp6,225.00	Rp7,469.38 +20.0%	8.0%	Rp8,400.00	Rp5,500.00	n/a	16
Sep ’24	Rp6,550.00	Rp7,583.44 +15.8%	4.3%	Rp8,400.00	Rp7,050.00	n/a	16
Aug ’24	Rp6,875.00	Rp7,516.76 +9.3%	4.7%	Rp8,400.00	Rp7,000.00	n/a	17
Jul ’24	Rp6,775.00	Rp7,497.78 +10.7%	8.6%	Rp9,500.00	Rp6,600.00	n/a	18
Jun ’24	Rp6,450.00	Rp7,433.89 +15.3%	9.8%	Rp9,500.00	Rp6,300.00	n/a	18
May ’24	Rp6,750.00	Rp7,283.95 +7.9%	12.1%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,150.00	19
Apr ’24	Rp6,000.00	Rp7,270.79 +21.2%	12.1%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,200.00	19
Mar ’24	Rp6,150.00	Rp7,337.25 +19.3%	12.4%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,225.00	20
Feb ’24	Rp6,000.00	Rp7,333.95 +22.2%	12.7%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,125.00	19
Jan ’24	Rp5,700.00	Rp7,537.11 +32.2%	13.2%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,650.00	19
Dec ’23	Rp6,175.00	Rp7,591.05 +22.9%	12.6%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,750.00	19
Nov ’23	Rp6,575.00	Rp7,756.84 +18.0%	12.0%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp5,800.00	19
Oct ’23	Rp6,625.00	Rp7,820.00 +18.0%	11.9%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,225.00	19
Sep ’23	Rp6,925.00	Rp7,813.16 +12.8%	13.1%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,550.00	19
Aug ’23	Rp6,475.00	Rp7,717.50 +19.2%	12.9%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,875.00	20
Jul ’23	Rp6,525.00	Rp7,721.43 +18.3%	12.6%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,775.00	21
Jun ’23	Rp7,350.00	Rp7,700.00 +4.8%	12.4%	Rp9,500.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,450.00	22
May ’23	Rp7,575.00	Rp7,341.67 -3.1%	11.2%	Rp8,200.00	Rp5,000.00	Rp6,750.00	21

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.