Beijing Enterprises Water Group's(HKG:371) Share Price Is Down 49% Over The Past Three Years.

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited (HKG:371) shareholders, since the share price is down 49% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 4.3%.

See our latest analysis for Beijing Enterprises Water Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Beijing Enterprises Water Group actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 2.4% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. We like that Beijing Enterprises Water Group has actually grown its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Beijing Enterprises Water Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Beijing Enterprises Water Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Beijing Enterprises Water Group the TSR over the last 3 years was -41%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Beijing Enterprises Water Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 17% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 8.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Beijing Enterprises Water Group (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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