The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited's (HKG:3) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited's (HKG:3) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Hong Kong and China Gas has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Hong Kong and China Gas' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 16% last year. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 6.1% per year during the coming three years according to the nine analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 16% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hong Kong and China Gas' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Hong Kong and China Gas' P/E?

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Hong Kong and China Gas currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hong Kong and China Gas, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Hong Kong and China Gas, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com