Here's Why We Don't Think Binhai Investment's (HKG:2886) Statutory Earnings Reflect Its Underlying Earnings Potential

As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Binhai Investment (HKG:2886).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Binhai Investment made a profit of HK$158.6m on revenue of HK$3.61b. While it managed to grow its revenue over the last three years, its profit has moved in the other direction, as you can see in the chart below.

See our latest analysis for Binhai Investment

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. In this article we'll look at how Binhai Investment is impacting shareholders by issuing new shares, as well as how unusual items have affected the income line. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. Binhai Investment expanded the number of shares on issue by 15% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of Binhai Investment's EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting Binhai Investment's Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Unfortunately, Binhai Investment's profit is down 42% per year over three years. The good news is that profit was up 61% in the last twelve months. But EPS was less impressive, up only 61% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Binhai Investment can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Finally, we should also consider the fact that unusual items boosted Binhai Investment's net profit by HK$43m over the last year. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Binhai Investment doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On Binhai Investment's Profit Performance

To sum it all up, Binhai Investment got a nice boost to profit from unusual items; without that, its statutory results would have looked worse. And furthermore, it went and issued plenty of new shares, ensuring that each shareholder (who did not tip more money in) now owns a smaller proportion of the company. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Binhai Investment's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Our analysis shows 4 warning signs for Binhai Investment (1 is concerning!) and we strongly recommend you look at these bad boys before investing.

Our examination of Binhai Investment has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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