What Type Of Returns Would Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group)'s(HKG:2281) Shareholders Have Earned If They Purchased Their SharesThree Years Ago?

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd. (HKG:2281) shareholders, since the share price is down 29% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 1.5%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days.

See our latest analysis for Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group)

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Although the share price is down over three years, Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) actually managed to grow EPS by 14% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend has declined - a likely contributor to the share price drop. In contrast it does not seem particularly likely that the revenue levels are a concern for investors.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group)'s TSR for the last 3 years was -16%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) shares, which cost holders 14%, including dividends, while the market was up about 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Shareholders have lost 5% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) (2 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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