Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited

SEHK:1600 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$4.2b

Tian Lun Gas Holdings Valuation

Is 1600 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1600 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1600 (HK$4.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$6.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1600 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1600?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

1600 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.3x
PEG Ratio0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1600's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1600 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.2x
1083 Towngas Smart Energy
9.1x12.1%HK$9.7b
2886 Binhai Investment
7.5x33.2%HK$1.7b
6661 Huzhou Gas
9.7xn/aHK$1.1b
3633 Zhongyu Energy Holdings
70.6xn/aHK$14.5b
1600 Tian Lun Gas Holdings
8x21.4%HK$4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1600 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (24.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1600's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Gas Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1600 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the Asian Gas Utilities industry average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1600's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1600 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8x
Fair PE Ratio8.9x

PM vs Fair Ratio: 1600 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1600 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$4.29
HK$5.35
+24.7%
14.8%HK$6.14HK$4.56n/a2
Feb ’25HK$3.71
HK$5.35
+44.2%
14.8%HK$6.14HK$4.56n/a2
Jan ’25HK$4.30
HK$5.35
+24.4%
14.8%HK$6.14HK$4.56n/a2
Dec ’24HK$3.53
HK$6.40
+81.3%
25.2%HK$8.49HK$4.57n/a3
Nov ’24HK$3.80
HK$6.27
+64.9%
25.0%HK$8.28HK$4.46n/a3
Oct ’24HK$3.88
HK$5.81
+49.6%
23.7%HK$8.27HK$4.45n/a5
Sep ’24HK$4.04
HK$6.12
+51.5%
20.1%HK$8.37HK$4.64n/a5
Aug ’24HK$4.98
HK$6.59
+32.2%
21.3%HK$8.59HK$4.76n/a5
Jul ’24HK$5.50
HK$6.59
+19.7%
21.3%HK$8.59HK$4.76n/a5
Jun ’24HK$5.98
HK$6.59
+10.1%
21.3%HK$8.59HK$4.76n/a5
May ’24HK$5.59
HK$6.49
+16.1%
23.0%HK$8.94HK$4.90n/a4
Apr ’24HK$4.60
HK$6.29
+36.7%
29.9%HK$8.96HK$3.66n/a4
Mar ’24HK$5.17
HK$5.85
+13.2%
33.2%HK$9.02HK$3.69n/a5
Feb ’24HK$4.91
HK$5.36
+9.2%
35.9%HK$9.05HK$3.70HK$3.715
Jan ’24HK$3.90
HK$5.00
+28.2%
35.7%HK$8.42HK$3.49HK$4.305
Dec ’23HK$3.41
HK$5.00
+46.6%
35.7%HK$8.42HK$3.49HK$3.535
Nov ’23HK$2.92
HK$5.59
+91.5%
35.5%HK$8.60HK$3.56HK$3.806
Oct ’23HK$3.45
HK$5.04
+46.1%
32.1%HK$8.11HK$3.60HK$3.885
Sep ’23HK$3.58
HK$6.86
+91.6%
27.0%HK$8.33HK$3.70HK$4.044
Aug ’23HK$3.88
HK$7.93
+104.4%
7.5%HK$8.50HK$6.97HK$4.985
Jul ’23HK$4.93
HK$8.37
+69.9%
6.3%HK$9.01HK$7.41HK$5.506
Jun ’23HK$4.75
HK$8.37
+76.3%
6.3%HK$9.01HK$7.41HK$5.986
May ’23HK$4.64
HK$8.37
+80.5%
6.3%HK$9.01HK$7.41HK$5.596
Apr ’23HK$5.51
HK$9.24
+67.8%
11.6%HK$10.15HK$7.40HK$4.605
Mar ’23HK$6.36
HK$9.63
+51.5%
5.6%HK$10.16HK$8.65HK$5.176
Feb ’23HK$9.23
HK$9.85
+6.8%
7.3%HK$11.02HK$8.63HK$4.917

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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