MTR Corporation Limited

SHSC:66 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$218.6b

MTR Valuation

Is 66 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 66 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 66 (HK$35.12) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (HK$17.65)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 66 is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 66?

Key metric: As 66 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 66. This is calculated by dividing 66's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 66's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.5x
EarningsHK$17.46b
Market CapHK$218.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 66's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 66 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.3x
525 Guangshen Railway
10.4x5.46%HK$23.4b
2169 Canggang Railway
31xn/aHK$2.2b
1919 COSCO SHIPPING Holdings
5.6x-33.62%HK$267.5b
1519 J&T Global Express
70.2x35.09%HK$87.5b
66 MTR
12.5x-10.45%HK$218.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 66 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (29.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 66's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
66 12.5xIndustry Avg. 13.7xNo. of Companies23PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 66 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Asian Transportation industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 66's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

66 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.5x
Fair PE Ratio9.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 66 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 66 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$35.12
HK$29.85
-15.02%
14.11%HK$36.60HK$24.00n/a12
Mar ’27HK$37.34
HK$29.42
-21.20%
12.17%HK$36.10HK$24.00n/a13
Feb ’27HK$34.58
HK$28.41
-17.85%
12.62%HK$35.55HK$22.00n/a14
Jan ’27HK$29.80
HK$27.86
-6.52%
11.13%HK$32.00HK$22.00n/a13
Dec ’26HK$31.34
HK$27.86
-11.11%
11.13%HK$32.00HK$22.00n/a13
Nov ’26HK$28.50
HK$27.86
-2.25%
11.13%HK$32.00HK$22.00n/a13
Oct ’26HK$26.38
HK$27.86
+5.60%
11.13%HK$32.00HK$22.00n/a13
Sep ’26HK$26.36
HK$27.70
+5.10%
11.85%HK$32.00HK$22.00n/a13
Aug ’26HK$28.20
HK$27.74
-1.63%
14.37%HK$32.00HK$21.60n/a12
Jul ’26HK$28.20
HK$27.57
-2.25%
13.43%HK$32.00HK$21.60n/a12
Jun ’26HK$27.40
HK$27.57
+0.61%
13.43%HK$32.00HK$21.60n/a12
May ’26HK$26.80
HK$27.57
+2.86%
13.43%HK$32.00HK$21.60n/a12
Apr ’26HK$25.65
HK$27.57
+7.47%
13.43%HK$32.00HK$21.60n/a12
Mar ’26HK$25.40
HK$28.15
+10.84%
10.78%HK$32.00HK$21.60HK$37.3412
Feb ’26HK$24.35
HK$28.68
+17.80%
12.07%HK$33.90HK$21.60HK$34.5812
Jan ’26HK$27.10
HK$29.46
+8.72%
13.09%HK$34.60HK$21.60HK$29.8011
Dec ’25HK$27.25
HK$29.46
+8.12%
13.09%HK$34.60HK$21.60HK$31.3411
Nov ’25HK$28.35
HK$29.46
+3.93%
13.87%HK$34.60HK$21.60HK$28.5011
Oct ’25HK$29.35
HK$28.35
-3.42%
16.54%HK$33.90HK$20.00HK$26.3811
Sep ’25HK$27.55
HK$28.21
+2.39%
16.57%HK$33.90HK$20.00HK$26.3611
Aug ’25HK$25.55
HK$28.47
+11.44%
19.65%HK$38.50HK$19.00HK$28.2011
Jul ’25HK$24.65
HK$29.93
+21.41%
20.19%HK$38.50HK$20.00HK$28.2011
Jun ’25HK$26.50
HK$30.25
+14.13%
18.47%HK$38.50HK$21.40HK$27.4011
May ’25HK$25.85
HK$30.41
+17.64%
19.18%HK$38.50HK$21.40HK$26.8010
Apr ’25HK$25.80
HK$30.46
+18.06%
19.11%HK$38.50HK$21.40HK$25.6510
Mar ’25HK$25.70
HK$32.31
+25.72%
22.82%HK$45.20HK$21.40HK$25.4010
HK$29.85
Fair Value
17.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/11 18:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/11 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

MTR Corporation Limited is covered by 29 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Karl ChoiBofA Global Research
Shui Lung ChoiCitigroup Inc
null nullCLSA