Stock Analysis

Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going Forward

SEHK:548
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If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Shenzhen Expressway (HKG:548) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Shenzhen Expressway is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.054 = CN¥2.2b ÷ (CN¥55b - CN¥14b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

So, Shenzhen Expressway has an ROCE of 5.4%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 6.3% average generated by the Infrastructure industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Shenzhen Expressway

roce
SEHK:548 Return on Capital Employed April 20th 2021

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Shenzhen Expressway compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Shenzhen Expressway here for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Shenzhen Expressway Tell Us?

The returns on capital haven't changed much for Shenzhen Expressway in recent years. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 5.4% and the business has deployed 49% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

On another note, while the change in ROCE trend might not scream for attention, it's interesting that the current liabilities have actually gone up over the last five years. This is intriguing because if current liabilities hadn't increased to 25% of total assets, this reported ROCE would probably be less than5.4% because total capital employed would be higher.The 5.4% ROCE could be even lower if current liabilities weren't 25% of total assets, because the the formula would show a larger base of total capital employed. With that in mind, just be wary if this ratio increases in the future, because if it gets particularly high, this brings with it some new elements of risk.

In Conclusion...

As we've seen above, Shenzhen Expressway's returns on capital haven't increased but it is reinvesting in the business. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 68% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

If you'd like to know more about Shenzhen Expressway, we've spotted 3 warning signs, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

While Shenzhen Expressway isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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