China Merchants Port Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 144 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

144 (HK$12.8) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$12.4)

Is 144 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 144 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 144 (HK$12.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$12.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 144 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 144?

Key metric: As 144 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 144. This is calculated by dividing 144's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 144's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.3x
Earnings	HK$7.33b
Market Cap	HK$53.73b

144 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	8.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17x
PEG Ratio	6.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 144's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 144 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.3x
6198 Qingdao Port International	6.7x	3.7%	HK$55.6b
2880 Liaoning Port	13.2x	n/a	HK$38.6b
3369 Qinhuangdao Port	6.5x	n/a	HK$19.7b
1199 COSCO SHIPPING Ports	6.9x	6.0%	HK$16.7b
144 China Merchants Port Holdings	7.3x	1.2%	HK$53.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 144 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (8.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 144's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Infrastructure Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 144 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Infrastructure industry average (7.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 144's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

144 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.3x
Fair PE Ratio	8.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 144 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 144 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$12.80	HK$14.49 +13.2%	5.1%	HK$15.60	HK$13.00	n/a	8
Nov ’25	HK$13.06	HK$14.33 +9.7%	6.1%	HK$15.60	HK$13.00	n/a	9
Oct ’25	HK$12.38	HK$14.18 +14.5%	6.7%	HK$15.60	HK$13.00	n/a	9
Sep ’25	HK$11.70	HK$13.36 +14.2%	12.1%	HK$15.60	HK$10.00	n/a	9
Aug ’25	HK$11.58	HK$13.20 +14.0%	14.6%	HK$15.79	HK$10.00	n/a	9
Jul ’25	HK$11.62	HK$13.11 +12.8%	13.9%	HK$15.40	HK$10.00	n/a	9
Jun ’25	HK$11.12	HK$12.17 +9.4%	13.9%	HK$15.00	HK$10.00	n/a	9
May ’25	HK$10.36	HK$12.17 +17.4%	13.9%	HK$15.00	HK$10.00	n/a	9
Apr ’25	HK$9.39	HK$11.61 +23.6%	11.1%	HK$13.97	HK$10.00	n/a	9
Mar ’25	HK$9.71	HK$12.08 +24.4%	12.9%	HK$15.00	HK$10.00	n/a	10
Feb ’25	HK$9.82	HK$12.31 +25.3%	11.9%	HK$15.00	HK$10.00	n/a	10
Jan ’25	HK$10.64	HK$12.31 +15.6%	12.3%	HK$15.00	HK$9.88	n/a	10
Dec ’24	HK$10.24	HK$12.24 +19.5%	11.9%	HK$15.00	HK$9.88	HK$12.30	10
Nov ’24	HK$9.90	HK$12.20 +23.2%	12.0%	HK$15.00	HK$9.88	HK$13.06	10
Oct ’24	HK$9.75	HK$12.20 +25.1%	12.0%	HK$15.00	HK$9.88	HK$12.38	10
Sep ’24	HK$9.38	HK$12.89 +37.5%	9.1%	HK$16.00	HK$11.60	HK$11.70	10
Aug ’24	HK$10.72	HK$13.20 +23.2%	9.1%	HK$16.00	HK$11.60	HK$11.58	9
Jul ’24	HK$11.06	HK$13.31 +20.3%	8.6%	HK$16.00	HK$11.60	HK$11.62	9
Jun ’24	HK$11.80	HK$13.31 +12.8%	8.6%	HK$16.00	HK$11.60	HK$11.12	9
May ’24	HK$11.62	HK$13.31 +14.5%	8.6%	HK$16.00	HK$11.60	HK$10.36	9
Apr ’24	HK$12.04	HK$14.13 +17.4%	14.7%	HK$18.00	HK$11.60	HK$9.39	9
Mar ’24	HK$11.32	HK$14.31 +26.4%	14.3%	HK$18.00	HK$11.60	HK$9.71	11
Feb ’24	HK$11.28	HK$14.24 +26.2%	14.3%	HK$18.00	HK$11.90	HK$9.82	11
Jan ’24	HK$11.44	HK$14.97 +30.8%	12.4%	HK$18.00	HK$12.00	HK$10.64	11
Dec ’23	HK$11.24	HK$15.08 +34.2%	13.0%	HK$18.00	HK$12.00	HK$10.24	11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.