Is Wise Ally International Holdings (HKG:9918) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Wise Ally International Holdings Limited (HKG:9918) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Wise Ally International Holdings

What Is Wise Ally International Holdings's Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Wise Ally International Holdings had HK$261.5m in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. However, it also had HK$234.7m in cash, and so its net debt is HK$26.8m.

A Look At Wise Ally International Holdings' Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Wise Ally International Holdings had liabilities of HK$582.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$25.8m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$234.7m as well as receivables valued at HK$261.8m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by HK$111.4m.

This deficit isn't so bad because Wise Ally International Holdings is worth HK$500.0m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Given net debt is only 0.60 times EBITDA, it is initially surprising to see that Wise Ally International Holdings's EBIT has low interest coverage of 2.3 times. So one way or the other, it's clear the debt levels are not trivial. Importantly, Wise Ally International Holdings's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 56% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Wise Ally International Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Wise Ally International Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 63% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Wise Ally International Holdings's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. In particular, its net debt to EBITDA was re-invigorating. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Wise Ally International Holdings is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Wise Ally International Holdings has 7 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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