Is IRICO Group New Energy (HKG:438) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that IRICO Group New Energy Company Limited (HKG:438) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for IRICO Group New Energy

How Much Debt Does IRICO Group New Energy Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2021, IRICO Group New Energy had CN¥1.55b of debt, up from CN¥962.8m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥738.0m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥811.7m.

How Strong Is IRICO Group New Energy's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that IRICO Group New Energy had liabilities of CN¥2.66b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥549.3m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥738.0m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.10b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥1.37b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥1.51b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

IRICO Group New Energy's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.9 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.4 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. We saw IRICO Group New Energy grow its EBIT by 7.1% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if IRICO Group New Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, IRICO Group New Energy recorded free cash flow worth 55% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

IRICO Group New Energy's struggle to handle its total liabilities had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that IRICO Group New Energy is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for IRICO Group New Energy you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.