Stock Analysis

Despite delivering investors losses of 22% over the past 3 years, Changhong Jiahua Holdings (HKG:3991) has been growing its earnings

Published
SEHK:3991

Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited (HKG:3991) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 10% in the last week. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. Truth be told the share price declined 38% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

While the stock has risen 10% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for Changhong Jiahua Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Changhong Jiahua Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.9% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Revenue has been pretty flat over three years, so that isn't an obvious reason shareholders would sell. A closer look at revenue and profit trends might yield insights.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

SEHK:3991 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 19th 2023

Take a more thorough look at Changhong Jiahua Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Changhong Jiahua Holdings, it has a TSR of -22% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 11% in the last year, Changhong Jiahua Holdings shareholders lost 10% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.7%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Changhong Jiahua Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Changhong Jiahua Holdings (2 are a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.