China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited

SEHK:3969 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$62.2b

China Railway Signal & Communication Valuation

Is 3969 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3969 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3969 (HK$3.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$6.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3969 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3969?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

3969 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.4x
PEG Ratio1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3969's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3969 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
327 PAX Global Technology
6x12.4%HK$6.9b
3393 Wasion Holdings
11.5x25.8%HK$6.5b
1478 Q Technology (Group)
44.5x32.9%HK$3.9b
710 BOE Varitronix
7.5x17.8%HK$3.6b
3969 China Railway Signal & Communication
8.8x8.1%HK$62.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3969 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3969's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Electronic Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3969 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Electronic industry average (9.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3969's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3969 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.8x
Fair PE Ratio12.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3969 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3969 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$3.13
HK$3.96
+26.6%
14.8%HK$4.80HK$3.10n/a5
Apr ’25HK$2.98
HK$4.01
+34.7%
16.4%HK$5.04HK$3.10n/a5
Mar ’25HK$2.94
HK$4.07
+38.3%
17.9%HK$5.05HK$3.11n/a4
Feb ’25HK$2.75
HK$4.08
+48.2%
18.0%HK$5.05HK$3.11n/a4
Jan ’25HK$2.60
HK$4.14
+59.1%
17.8%HK$5.11HK$3.15n/a4
Dec ’24HK$2.38
HK$3.95
+65.8%
17.9%HK$5.05HK$3.10n/a6
Nov ’24HK$2.43
HK$3.94
+62.3%
15.7%HK$4.97HK$3.19n/a6
Oct ’24HK$2.50
HK$4.03
+61.0%
14.1%HK$4.98HK$3.20n/a7
Sep ’24HK$2.60
HK$4.00
+53.8%
16.0%HK$5.01HK$2.90n/a7
Aug ’24HK$2.86
HK$3.88
+35.6%
18.6%HK$5.26HK$2.77n/a8
Jul ’24HK$2.96
HK$3.88
+31.0%
18.6%HK$5.26HK$2.77n/a8
Jun ’24HK$3.17
HK$3.96
+24.8%
19.0%HK$5.39HK$2.84n/a8
May ’24HK$3.68
HK$3.66
-0.5%
24.7%HK$5.50HK$2.60n/a7
Apr ’24HK$2.89
HK$3.48
+20.6%
16.5%HK$4.35HK$2.62HK$2.987
Mar ’24HK$2.97
HK$3.34
+12.4%
16.4%HK$4.21HK$2.59HK$2.948
Feb ’24HK$2.75
HK$3.38
+22.8%
16.5%HK$4.29HK$2.66HK$2.758
Jan ’24HK$2.55
HK$3.24
+27.1%
17.3%HK$4.09HK$2.52HK$2.608
Dec ’23HK$2.50
HK$3.24
+29.6%
17.3%HK$4.09HK$2.52HK$2.388
Nov ’23HK$2.27
HK$3.21
+41.5%
17.4%HK$4.04HK$2.49HK$2.438
Oct ’23HK$2.16
HK$3.24
+50.0%
16.3%HK$4.20HK$2.59HK$2.508
Sep ’23HK$2.45
HK$3.50
+42.7%
22.6%HK$5.37HK$2.67HK$2.608
Aug ’23HK$2.48
HK$3.58
+44.2%
22.7%HK$5.49HK$2.73HK$2.868
Jul ’23HK$2.62
HK$3.53
+34.7%
21.9%HK$5.25HK$2.76HK$2.968
Jun ’23HK$2.82
HK$3.53
+25.1%
21.9%HK$5.25HK$2.76HK$3.178
May ’23HK$2.64
HK$3.67
+39.2%
22.4%HK$5.30HK$2.79HK$3.689
Apr ’23HK$2.51
HK$3.81
+51.9%
21.4%HK$5.50HK$2.90HK$2.899

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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