China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited

SEHK:3969 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$68.6b

China Railway Signal & Communication Valuation

Is 3969 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3969 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3969 (HK$3.16) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$2.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3969 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3969?

Key metric: As 3969 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3969. This is calculated by dividing 3969's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3969's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.5x
EarningsCN¥3.27b
Market CapCN¥63.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3969's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3969 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.9x
327 PAX Global Technology
5.5x14.3%HK$5.2b
1478 Q Technology (Group)
34.1x35.7%HK$6.2b
3393 Wasion Holdings
10.1x22.8%HK$6.6b
710 BOE Varitronix
10x21.3%HK$4.5b
3969 China Railway Signal & Communication
9.5x11.0%HK$68.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3969 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3969's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Electronic Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
76 Elate Holdings
0.6xn/aUS$18.18m
1822 China Wood International Holding
0.06xn/aUS$8.72m
911 Qianhai Health Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$6.86m
No more companies available in this PE range
3969 9.5xIndustry Avg. 8.8xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3969 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Electronic industry average (8.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3969's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3969 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3969 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3969 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$3.16
HK$3.93
+24.5%
11.5%HK$4.74HK$3.48n/a5
Nov ’25HK$3.19
HK$3.92
+22.7%
10.6%HK$4.73HK$3.47n/a6
Oct ’25HK$3.25
HK$3.87
+19.1%
13.7%HK$4.81HK$3.08n/a6
Sep ’25HK$2.82
HK$3.93
+39.2%
15.3%HK$4.88HK$3.06n/a6
Aug ’25HK$3.35
HK$3.86
+15.2%
14.8%HK$4.78HK$3.04n/a6
Jul ’25HK$3.36
HK$3.88
+15.5%
14.8%HK$4.81HK$3.06n/a6
Jun ’25HK$3.30
HK$3.88
+17.6%
14.8%HK$4.81HK$3.06n/a6
May ’25HK$3.05
HK$3.88
+27.3%
14.5%HK$4.80HK$3.09n/a6
Apr ’25HK$2.98
HK$3.93
+31.8%
16.0%HK$5.04HK$3.10n/a6
Mar ’25HK$2.94
HK$3.95
+34.3%
17.6%HK$5.05HK$3.11n/a5
Feb ’25HK$2.75
HK$3.96
+43.9%
17.7%HK$5.05HK$3.11n/a5
Jan ’25HK$2.60
HK$4.01
+54.4%
17.5%HK$5.11HK$3.14n/a5
Dec ’24HK$2.38
HK$3.95
+65.8%
17.9%HK$5.05HK$3.10n/a6
Nov ’24HK$2.43
HK$3.94
+62.3%
15.7%HK$4.97HK$3.19HK$3.196
Oct ’24HK$2.50
HK$4.03
+61.0%
14.1%HK$4.98HK$3.20HK$3.257
Sep ’24HK$2.60
HK$4.00
+53.8%
16.0%HK$5.01HK$2.90HK$2.827
Aug ’24HK$2.86
HK$3.88
+35.6%
18.6%HK$5.26HK$2.77HK$3.358
Jul ’24HK$2.96
HK$3.88
+31.0%
18.6%HK$5.26HK$2.77HK$3.368
Jun ’24HK$3.17
HK$3.96
+24.8%
19.0%HK$5.39HK$2.84HK$3.308
May ’24HK$3.68
HK$3.66
-0.5%
24.7%HK$5.50HK$2.60HK$3.057
Apr ’24HK$2.89
HK$3.48
+20.6%
16.5%HK$4.35HK$2.62HK$2.987
Mar ’24HK$2.97
HK$3.34
+12.4%
16.4%HK$4.21HK$2.59HK$2.948
Feb ’24HK$2.75
HK$3.38
+22.8%
16.5%HK$4.29HK$2.66HK$2.758
Jan ’24HK$2.55
HK$3.24
+27.1%
17.3%HK$4.09HK$2.52HK$2.608
Dec ’23HK$2.50
HK$3.24
+29.6%
17.3%HK$4.09HK$2.52HK$2.388
Nov ’23HK$2.27
HK$3.21
+41.5%
17.4%HK$4.04HK$2.49HK$2.438

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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