More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Kinergy Corporation Ltd.'s (HKG:3302) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Kinergy Corporation Ltd. (HKG:3302) share price has dived 27% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 59% share price decline.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Kinergy's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Electronic industry is similar at about 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Kinergy

How Kinergy Has Been Performing

Kinergy has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to only match most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Kinergy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Kinergy?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Kinergy would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 2.6% gain to the company's revenues. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 16% overall drop in revenue. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Kinergy is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Kinergy's P/S

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Kinergy looks to be in line with the rest of the Electronic industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at Kinergy revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Kinergy, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.