HG Semiconductor Limited's (HKG:6908) 28% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

HG Semiconductor Limited (HKG:6908) shares have retraced a considerable 28% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 23% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking HG Semiconductor is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 5.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Semiconductor industry have P/S ratios below 1.4x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for HG Semiconductor

How HG Semiconductor Has Been Performing

For instance, HG Semiconductor's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on HG Semiconductor will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, HG Semiconductor would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 50% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 18% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that HG Semiconductor's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

HG Semiconductor's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that HG Semiconductor currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for HG Semiconductor (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.