Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings (SEHK:9909) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9909 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9909 (HK$5.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$49.38)

9909 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

9909 Stock Overview

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in commercial operational and residential property management businesses in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 89.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.14% per year

Earnings grew by 43.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Competitors

Dexin Services Group

SEHK:2215

HK$2.9b

SCE Intelligent Commercial Management Holdings

SEHK:606

HK$3.3b

Jinmao Property Services

SEHK:816

HK$4.4b

Ronshine Service Holding

SEHK:2207

HK$2.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$5.32
52 Week High	HK$28.40
52 Week Low	HK$4.99
Beta	0.090
1 Month Change	-12.50%
3 Month Change	-32.14%
1 Year Change	-80.69%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-44.00%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 19

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings (HKG:9909) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At HK$0.30

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited ( HKG:9909 ) will increase its dividend on the 13th of October to...

Shareholder Returns

	9909	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	-16.5%	3.3%	0.5%
1Y	-80.7%	-31.2%	-20.3%

Return vs Industry: 9909 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -31.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 9909 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -20.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 9909's price volatile compared to industry and market?
9909 volatility
9909 Average Weekly Movement	12.6%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.1%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.7%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 9909 is more volatile than 75% of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 13% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 9909's weekly volatility (13%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Hong Kong stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	6,886	De Li Chen	https://www.powerlongcm.com

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in commercial operational and residential property management businesses in the People’s Republic of China. It offers commercial operational services, including business tenant management; rent collection; and other value-added services, such as car parking, common area, and advertising space management services, as well as market research and positioning, business tenant sourcing, and opening preparation services for property developers, tenants, and owners of shopping malls and retail commercial properties under the Powerlong One Mall, Powerlong City, Powerlong Plaza, and Powerlong Land brand names. The company also provides commercial property management services, such as security, gardening, cleaning, repair, and maintenance services for tenants.

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
9909 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥2.92b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥438.14m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥2.46b

6.7x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 9909 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
9909 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥2.46b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥1.64b
Gross Profit	CN¥821.83m
Other Expenses	CN¥383.69m
Earnings	CN¥438.14m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.68
Gross Margin	33.35%
Net Profit Margin	17.78%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 9909 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.3%

Current Dividend Yield

55%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 9909 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9909?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 9909. This is calculated by dividing 9909's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 9909's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥2.92b

9909 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9909's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

9909 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9909 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	18.6x
2215 Dexin Services Group	25.5x	n/a	HK$2.9b
606 SCE Intelligent Commercial Management Holdings	10.2x	n/a	HK$3.3b
816 Jinmao Property Services	21.1x	46.5%	HK$4.4b
2207 Ronshine Service Holding	17.7x	n/a	HK$2.3b
9909 Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings	6.7x	22.1%	HK$3.4b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9909 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9909's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9909 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9909's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9909 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.7x
Fair PE Ratio	4.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9909 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9909 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9909 (HK$5.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$49.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9909 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 9909 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.3x)

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Future Growth

How is Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 9909's forecast earnings growth (22.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 9909's earnings (22.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (16.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 9909's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 9909's revenue (20.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 9909's revenue (20.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 9909's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.5%)

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Past Performance

How has Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

33.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 9909 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 9909's current net profit margins (17.8%) are higher than last year (15.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 9909's earnings have grown significantly by 33.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 9909's earnings growth over the past year (43.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (33.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 9909 earnings growth over the past year (43.6%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 14.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 9909's Return on Equity (17.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 9909's short term assets (CN¥4.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥1.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 9909's short term assets (CN¥4.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥716.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 9909 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 9909 has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 4977.2%.

Debt Coverage: 9909 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 9909 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

8.34%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 9909's dividend (8.34%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.71%).

High Dividend: 9909's dividend (8.34%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.78%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 9909 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: 9909's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (54.9%), 9909's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (25.4%), 9909's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

De Li Chen (48 yo)

2.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. De Li Chen has been Chief Executive Officer of Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited since June 1, 2020 and serves as its Executive Director since June 15, 2020. Mr. Chen joined Powerlong Co...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 9909's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 9909's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 9909 insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31