SEHK:3883

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

China Aoyuan Group Limited engages in the development of commercial real estate properties in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Australia, and Canada. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

6 star dividend payer and undervalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has China Aoyuan Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: 3883's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-5.7%

3883

-2.2%

HK Real Estate

-2.8%

HK Market


1 Year Return

-32.0%

3883

-15.1%

HK Real Estate

-1.7%

HK Market

Return vs Industry: 3883 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -15.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 3883 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -1.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

3883IndustryMarket
7 Day-5.7%-2.2%-2.8%
30 Day-8.2%-4.3%2.7%
90 Day-25.6%-6.4%-0.4%
1 Year-27.3%-32.0%-10.6%-15.1%2.3%-1.7%
3 Year89.0%60.3%-9.1%-23.4%-8.7%-18.6%
5 Year460.7%314.9%31.3%5.3%13.7%-5.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is China Aoyuan Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is China Aoyuan Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

35.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: 3883 (HK$7.26) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$11.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3883 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: 3883 is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.9x) compared to the HK Real Estate industry average (8.8x).

PE vs Market: 3883 is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.9x) compared to the Hong Kong market (10.7x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 3883 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: 3883 is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the HK Real Estate industry average (0.4x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is China Aoyuan Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

16.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 3883's forecast earnings growth (16.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 3883's earnings (16.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (22% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 3883's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 3883's revenue (18.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 3883's revenue (18.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 3883's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (32%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has China Aoyuan Group performed over the past 5 years?

38.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 3883 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 3883's current net profit margins (7.9%) are lower than last year (8.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 3883's earnings have grown significantly by 38.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 3883's earnings growth over the past year (25.3%) is below its 5-year average (38.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 3883 earnings growth over the past year (25.3%) exceeded the Real Estate industry -6.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: 3883's Return on Equity (12.5%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is China Aoyuan Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 3883's short term assets (CN¥269.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥198.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 3883's short term assets (CN¥269.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥57.6B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 3883's debt to equity ratio (245.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 3883's debt to equity ratio has increased from 141.7% to 245.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 3883's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: 3883's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (117.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is China Aoyuan Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

8.78%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 3883's dividend (8.78%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.31%).

High Dividend: 3883's dividend (8.78%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.02%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 3883's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 3883's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (34.1%), 3883's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: 3883's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (38.3% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Zi Ning Guo (58 yo)

9.75yrs

Tenure

CN¥4,244,000

Compensation

Mr. Zi Ning Guo has been the Chief Executive Officer of China Aoyuan Group Limited (formerly known as China Aoyuan Property Group Limited) since January 20, 2011. Mr. Guo served as an Executive Vice Presid ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Zi Ning's total compensation ($USD634.39K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD557.62K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Zi Ning's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Zi Wen Guo
Executive Chairman of the Board13.42yrsCN¥4.08mno data
Zi Ning Guo
Vice Chairman & CEO9.75yrsCN¥4.24mno data
Jun Ma
COO, Executive VP & Executive Director5.17yrsCN¥10.80m0.13%
CN¥ 25.4m
Zhi Bin Chen
CFO & VP of Group and Director of Financial Fund Center1.42yrsno datano data
Ran Hu
VP of the Group & President of the Technology Groupno datano datano data
Shi Guo Guo
VP and Head of Administration & Human Resources Centerno datano datano data
Jun Zhang
Senior VP & Executive Director0.42yrno data0.11%
CN¥ 21.7m
Hao Hu
Senior VP and Director & President of International Investment Group1.25yrsno datano data
Banghua Huang
VP of Group & President of Capital Investment Group1.25yrsno datano data
Jia Jang Chen
Senior VP & Executive Directorno datano datano data
Mei Yi Lee
Company Secretary3.75yrsno datano data
Mei Shan Wong
Joint Company Secretary2.17yrsno datano data

1.8yrs

Average Tenure

46yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: 3883's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Zi Wen Guo
Executive Chairman of the Board13.42yrsCN¥4.08mno data
Zi Ning Guo
Vice Chairman & CEO9.75yrsCN¥4.24mno data
Jun Ma
COO, Executive VP & Executive Director5.17yrsCN¥10.80m0.13%
CN¥ 25.4m
Jun Zhang
Senior VP & Executive Director0.42yrno data0.11%
CN¥ 21.7m
Jia Jang Chen
Senior VP & Executive Directorno datano datano data
Jiang Hu
Independent Non-Executive Director6.58yrsCN¥282.00kno data
Kwok Keung Cheung
Independent Non-Executive Directorno datano datano data
King Fai Tsui
Independent Non-Executive Directorno datano datano data

5.9yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: 3883's board of directors are considered experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

China Aoyuan Group Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: China Aoyuan Group Limited
  • Ticker: 3883
  • Exchange: SEHK
  • Founded: 1996
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: HK$19.623b
  • Shares outstanding: 2.70b
  • Website: https://www.aoyuan.com.cn

Number of Employees


Location

  • China Aoyuan Group Limited
  • Aoyuan Mansion
  • No.108, HuangPu Avenue West
  • Guangzhou
  • Guangdong Province
  • 510620
  • China

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
3883SEHK (The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd.)YesOrdinary SharesHKHKDOct 2007
47CDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEUROct 2007
3883SZSC (The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect)YesOrdinary SharesHKHKDOct 2007
3883SHSC (Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited - Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect)YesOrdinary SharesHKHKDOct 2007

Biography

China Aoyuan Group Limited engages in the development of commercial real estate properties in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Australia, and Canada. The company operates through Property Development, Property I ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/10/31 12:32
End of Day Share Price2020/10/30 00:00
Earnings2020/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.