Country Garden Holdings (SEHK:2007) - Share price, News & Analysis

2007 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

2007 Stock Overview

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties primarily in Mainland China.

Rewards

Trading at 17.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 6.32% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 7.91% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (5.1%) are lower than last year (7.6%)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Country Garden Holdings Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Country Garden Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$4.61
52 Week High	HK$9.08
52 Week Low	HK$3.34
Beta	1.05
1 Month Change	-5.73%
3 Month Change	-15.57%
1 Year Change	-48.89%
3 Year Change	-61.20%
5 Year Change	-49.06%
Change since IPO	-36.59%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 14

Is There Now An Opportunity In Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (HKG:2007)?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Country Garden Holdings Company Limited ( HKG:2007 ). The...

Shareholder Returns

	2007	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	7.0%	4.3%	2.1%
1Y	-48.9%	-34.5%	-23.3%

Return vs Industry: 2007 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -34.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 2007 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -23.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 2007's price volatile compared to industry and market?
2007 volatility
2007 Average Weekly Movement	9.0%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	7.0%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.8%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 2007 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 2007's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1992	150,353	Bin Mo	https://www.countrygarden.com.cn

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties primarily in Mainland China. The company operates through two segments, Property Development and Construction. It develops residential projects, such as townhouses and condominiums; and car parks and retail shops.

Country Garden Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Country Garden Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
2007 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥89.98b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥26.80b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥523.06b

3.4x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 2007 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
2007 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥523.06b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥430.28b
Gross Profit	CN¥92.78b
Other Expenses	CN¥65.99b
Earnings	CN¥26.80b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.17
Gross Margin	17.74%
Net Profit Margin	5.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio	105.8%

How did 2007 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.9%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 2007 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2007?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2007. This is calculated by dividing 2007's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2007's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥89.98b

2007 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.8x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2007's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

2007 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2007 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.2x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2007 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2007's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Hong Kong Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2007 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2007's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2007 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.4x
Fair PE Ratio	6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2007 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2007 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2007 (HK$4.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$5.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2007 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 2007 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.5x)

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Future Growth

How is Country Garden Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

6.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 2007's forecast earnings growth (6.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.5%).

Earnings vs Market: 2007's earnings (6.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 2007's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 2007's revenue (2.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 2007's revenue (2.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 2007's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.7%).

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Past Performance

How has Country Garden Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

12.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 2007 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 2007's current net profit margins (5.1%) are lower than last year (7.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 2007's earnings have grown by 12.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 2007's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 2007 had negative earnings growth (-23.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Real Estate industry average (14.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 2007's Return on Equity (13.6%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Country Garden Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 2007's short term assets (CN¥1,713.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥1,378.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 2007's short term assets (CN¥1,713.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥268.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 2007's net debt to equity ratio (52.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 2007's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 175.5% to 105.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 2007's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.4%).

Interest Coverage: 2007 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Country Garden Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

7.90%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 2007's dividend (7.91%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.76%).

High Dividend: 2007's dividend (7.91%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.89%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 2007's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 2007's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (25.5%), 2007's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (97.5%), 2007's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

13.7yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Bin Mo (54 yo)

no data

Tenure

CN¥191,586,000

Compensation

Mr. Bin Mo is President & Executive Director of Smart Insight International Limited since July 2010. He has been the President and Executive Director of Country Garden Holdings Company Limited since July 2...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bin's total compensation ($USD28.60M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD1.00M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bin's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 2007's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 13.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.1%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31