Kerry Properties (SZSC:683) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 683 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

683 (HK$15.42) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$53.03)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 683 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 683 (HK$15.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$53.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 683 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 683?

Key metric: As 683 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 683. This is calculated by dividing 683's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 683's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.8x
Earnings	HK$2.29b
Market Cap	HK$22.38b

683 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17.8x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 683's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 683 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.7x
697 Shoucheng Holdings	19.2x	24.8%	HK$6.9b
16 Sun Hung Kai Properties	11.5x	11.8%	HK$219.5b
88 Tai Cheung Holdings	24.3x	44.5%	HK$1.8b
50 Hong Kong Ferry (Holdings)	7.8x	n/a	HK$1.5b
683 Kerry Properties	9.8x	15.2%	HK$22.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 683 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 683's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$226.69m
2768 Jiayuan International Group	1.4x	31.6%	US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group	0.06x	n/a	US$126.28m
2117 Datang Group Holdings	1.2x	n/a	US$87.18m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 683 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 683's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

683 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 683 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 683 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$15.42	HK$17.99 +16.7%	11.3%	HK$20.60	HK$15.00	n/a	9
Nov ’25	HK$16.60	HK$17.99 +8.4%	11.3%	HK$20.60	HK$15.00	n/a	9
Oct ’25	HK$16.56	HK$16.51 -0.3%	10.8%	HK$20.35	HK$14.20	n/a	9
Sep ’25	HK$14.64	HK$16.43 +12.2%	11.5%	HK$20.35	HK$13.50	n/a	9
Aug ’25	HK$13.04	HK$16.29 +24.9%	11.7%	HK$20.30	HK$13.50	n/a	9
Jul ’25	HK$13.58	HK$15.79 +16.3%	13.6%	HK$20.30	HK$12.50	n/a	9
Jun ’25	HK$14.10	HK$15.79 +12.0%	13.6%	HK$20.30	HK$12.50	n/a	9
May ’25	HK$15.26	HK$15.88 +4.0%	13.8%	HK$20.30	HK$12.50	n/a	9
Apr ’25	HK$14.32	HK$15.77 +10.1%	14.3%	HK$20.30	HK$12.50	n/a	9
Mar ’25	HK$12.82	HK$15.99 +24.7%	14.7%	HK$20.00	HK$12.50	n/a	9
Feb ’25	HK$12.20	HK$16.11 +32.1%	13.6%	HK$20.00	HK$13.50	n/a	9
Jan ’25	HK$14.28	HK$17.17 +20.2%	15.4%	HK$21.60	HK$13.50	n/a	9
Dec ’24	HK$13.08	HK$17.27 +32.0%	15.5%	HK$21.60	HK$13.50	n/a	9
Nov ’24	HK$13.24	HK$17.27 +30.4%	15.5%	HK$21.60	HK$13.50	HK$16.60	9
Oct ’24	HK$13.32	HK$19.38 +45.5%	14.2%	HK$24.30	HK$15.00	HK$16.56	10
Sep ’24	HK$14.50	HK$20.20 +39.3%	11.2%	HK$24.30	HK$16.00	HK$14.64	10
Aug ’24	HK$16.80	HK$21.56 +28.3%	13.0%	HK$26.00	HK$16.00	HK$13.04	10
Jul ’24	HK$16.24	HK$22.43 +38.1%	13.6%	HK$26.00	HK$16.00	HK$13.58	10
Jun ’24	HK$17.30	HK$23.57 +36.2%	10.2%	HK$26.00	HK$18.00	HK$14.10	10
May ’24	HK$20.20	HK$23.87 +18.2%	10.0%	HK$26.00	HK$18.00	HK$15.26	10
Apr ’24	HK$20.05	HK$23.79 +18.7%	9.8%	HK$26.00	HK$18.00	HK$14.32	10
Mar ’24	HK$19.68	HK$22.61 +14.9%	17.6%	HK$28.00	HK$16.10	HK$12.82	10
Feb ’24	HK$20.85	HK$22.01 +5.6%	15.9%	HK$26.70	HK$16.10	HK$12.20	10
Jan ’24	HK$17.00	HK$21.24 +24.9%	18.6%	HK$26.55	HK$16.10	HK$14.28	9
Dec ’23	HK$15.02	HK$21.63 +44.0%	20.0%	HK$27.00	HK$16.10	HK$13.08	9
Nov ’23	HK$12.68	HK$23.26 +83.4%	13.0%	HK$27.00	HK$16.70	HK$13.24	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Kerry Properties Valuation