The Wharf (Holdings) Limited

SZSC:4 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$66.6b

Wharf (Holdings) Valuation

Is 4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4 (HK$21.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$0.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

4 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.7x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.8x
1821 ESR Group
9.3x15.9%HK$45.3b
683 Kerry Properties
1.9x9.8%HK$23.7b
16 Sun Hung Kai Properties
3.4x5.9%HK$244.1b
17 New World Development
0.5x2.8%HK$20.3b
4 Wharf (Holdings)
3.8x-1.3%HK$66.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (3.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.8x
Fair PS Ratio2.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$21.80
HK$21.12
-3.1%
15.1%HK$26.00HK$16.30n/a10
Oct ’25HK$22.20
HK$20.38
-8.2%
14.1%HK$24.82HK$16.30n/a10
Sep ’25HK$20.50
HK$20.86
+1.8%
16.6%HK$27.00HK$16.30n/a10
Aug ’25HK$21.25
HK$21.21
-0.2%
18.4%HK$27.00HK$16.30n/a10
Jul ’25HK$21.95
HK$22.18
+1.0%
19.1%HK$29.00HK$17.00n/a9
Jun ’25HK$23.25
HK$22.18
-4.6%
19.1%HK$29.00HK$17.00n/a9
May ’25HK$25.30
HK$22.18
-12.3%
19.1%HK$29.00HK$17.00n/a9
Apr ’25HK$25.70
HK$22.57
-12.2%
21.9%HK$32.50HK$17.00n/a9
Mar ’25HK$27.20
HK$22.13
-18.6%
20.0%HK$32.50HK$17.00n/a9
Feb ’25HK$23.20
HK$21.19
-8.7%
13.4%HK$28.00HK$18.00n/a9
Jan ’25HK$25.15
HK$21.17
-15.8%
11.3%HK$25.00HK$18.00n/a9
Dec ’24HK$21.20
HK$21.56
+1.7%
10.4%HK$25.00HK$19.00n/a8
Nov ’24HK$20.00
HK$21.56
+7.8%
10.4%HK$25.00HK$19.00n/a8
Oct ’24HK$19.64
HK$21.11
+7.5%
13.4%HK$25.00HK$17.00HK$22.209
Sep ’24HK$16.62
HK$21.53
+29.6%
14.5%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$20.509
Aug ’24HK$17.96
HK$22.06
+22.8%
14.9%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$21.259
Jul ’24HK$18.62
HK$22.63
+21.6%
14.6%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$21.959
Jun ’24HK$16.28
HK$22.63
+39.0%
14.6%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$23.259
May ’24HK$17.94
HK$22.94
+27.9%
14.1%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$25.3010
Apr ’24HK$17.96
HK$22.94
+27.7%
14.1%HK$27.00HK$17.00HK$25.7010
Mar ’24HK$17.32
HK$23.45
+35.4%
13.4%HK$28.70HK$17.00HK$27.2010
Feb ’24HK$20.35
HK$23.75
+16.7%
15.1%HK$30.00HK$17.00HK$23.2010
Jan ’24HK$22.95
HK$24.71
+7.7%
17.7%HK$31.70HK$17.00HK$25.1510
Dec ’23HK$21.10
HK$25.65
+21.6%
16.7%HK$31.70HK$17.00HK$21.2010
Nov ’23HK$23.45
HK$26.88
+14.6%
11.3%HK$31.70HK$22.30HK$20.0010
Oct ’23HK$25.15
HK$27.28
+8.5%
13.3%HK$34.00HK$22.30HK$19.6410

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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